J1 League Β· Matchday 13
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Machida Zelvia win 52%, draw 25%, Gamba Osaka win 23%; the final score was 0:0.
Full time: Machida Zelvia 0-0 Gamba Osaka. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Machida Zelvia" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 25.4% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:0 | 5.7% | #8 of 31 |
| Total goals | 0 goals | 5.7% | #7 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 37.2% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/D | 14.2% | #3 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Machida Zelvia
- 52%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Gamba Osaka
- 48%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 63%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Machida Zelvia (52%); expected goals Machida Zelvia 1.97 β 1.27 Gamba Osaka.
- Goals look likely: 3.24 expected in total, 63% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
- Last five: Machida Zelvia DWWWL (3 wins), Gamba Osaka DWDLL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Machida Zelvia
- 1.97
- Expected goals Β· Gamba Osaka
- 1.27
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 37% / 42% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 6.0% | 9.0% | 85.0% |
| Home -2 | 15.0% | 16.3% | 68.7% |
| Home -1β | 31.3% | 20.6% | 48.1% |
| Home +1 | 77.3% | 12.6% | 10.1% |
| Home +2 | 89.9% | 6.8% | 3.3% |
| Home +3 | 96.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.9%
- 2:07.6%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:05.0%
- 3:16.3%
- 3:24.0%
- 4:02.5%
- 4:13.1%
- 4:22.0%
- 5:01.0%
- 5:11.2%
- 5:20.8%
- Other home win2.8%
- 0:05.7%
- 1:111.6%
- 2:26.1%
- 3:31.7%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:13.2%
- 0:23.2%
- 1:26.2%
- 0:31.3%
- 1:32.6%
- 2:32.6%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.8%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 85.2% | 62.8% | 40.6% | 22.7% |
| Under | 14.8% | 37.2% | 59.4% | 77.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 37.2%
- Over, even
- 25.6%
- Under, odd
- 9.2%
- Under, even
- 28.0%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 63.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 36.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Machida Zelvia
- 28.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Gamba Osaka
- 13.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 13.9% | 27.5% | 27.1% | 31.5% |
| Gamba Osaka | 28.1% | 35.7% | 22.7% | 13.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 29.5% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 1.9% |
| Draw | D/H 18.7% | D/D 14.2% | D/A 9.2% |
| Away | A/H 3.7% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 11.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Machida Zelvia
A Tokyo-area club that reached J1 in 2024 and finished third in its debut top-flight season, known for an intense, physical and well-organised style under Go Kuroda.
- City
- Machida, Tokyo, Japan
- Stadium
- Machida GION Stadium
- Founded
- 1988
- Head coach
- Go Kuroda
Gamba Osaka
Osaka-based J1 League club, champions in 2005 and winners of a domestic treble in 2014, known for attacking, forward-minded football and a strong youth academy.
- City
- Suita, Osaka, Japan
- Stadium
- Panasonic Stadium Suita
- Founded
- 1980
- Head coach
- Tomokazu Myojin
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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