Club football · AI probability model
China Sports Lottery football games explained: Jingcai, traditional pools and Beijing Single
China Sports Lottery is issued nationally by the Sports Lottery Administration Center of the General Administration of Sport and comes in three families: sports-betting style games (竞猜型), lotto/number games and instant scratch cards. Football appears in three of the betting-style products: Jingcai football, the traditional football pools and Beijing Single. Below are the rules of each and the GoalPulse match-page block that carries the matching probability.
Data updated:
All China Sports Lottery categories
- Sports games · JingcaiFootball
Jingcai football (1X2, handicap 1X2, correct score, total goals, HT/FT, mixed parlays; winner / finalists during major tournaments) and Jingcai basketball
- Sports games · Traditional football poolsFootball
14-match result pool, pick 9 of 14, 6-match HT/FT, 4-match goals
- Sports games · Beijing SingleFootball
Regional single-match games (Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong): football handicap 1X2, total goals, correct score, HT/FT, goals over/under + odd/even, win-lose parlay; also basketball, tennis and more
- Lotto & number games
Super Lotto (大乐透), Pick 3, Pick 5, 7-Star
- Instant games
Scratch cards (顶呱刮)
Jingcai football: five plays plus parlays
Jingcai is a fixed-prize game. The matches and handicap lines are selected and published by the national Sports Lottery Administration Center and cover the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Championship and major international fixtures. Every play settles on the 90-minute result including stoppage time — no extra time, no penalties.
GoalPulse currently publishes pre-match probabilities for these 15 competitions:
- Premier League
- La Liga
- Serie A
- Bundesliga
- Ligue 1
- Eredivisie
- Primeira Liga
- EFL Championship
- Brasileirão Série A
- J1 League
- K League 1
- MLS
- Champions League
- Europa League
- Conference League
China Sports Lottery does not offer every fixture of every competition listed here; official notices prevail.
| Play | Options | Rule | GoalPulse probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (胜平负) | 3: home / draw / away | Result of the home team after 90 minutes, no handicap. | Match-page 1X2 bar; the three probabilities sum to 100%. |
| Handicap 1X2 (让球胜平负) | 3 | Apply the published goal handicap, then settle 1X2. Home (−1): home wins by 2+ = win, by exactly 1 = draw, otherwise loss. | Handicap table with every integer line from −3 to +3, plus the model's most balanced line to compare with the published one. |
| Correct score (比分) | 31: 13 home-win cells (1:0…5:2 + other), 5 draw cells, 13 away-win cells | Exact 90-minute score; unlisted scores fall into “other home win / draw / away win”. | Three-column correct-score table matching the 31 Jingcai options. |
| Total goals (总进球) | 8: 0–6 and 7+ | Sum of both teams' goals after 90 minutes. | Total-goals (0–7+) distribution. |
| HT/FT (半全场) | 9 combinations | Half-time and full-time 1X2 together. | 3×3 HT/FT grid, rescaled to agree with the 1X2. |
Parlays: why the hit rate collapses
- A parlay strings several matches into one ticket (2-fold, 3-fold…) and every leg must win; mixed parlays allow different plays per leg. Some matches are also open as singles.
- If legs are independent, the chance of hitting all of them is the product: four legs at 60% each land together about 13% of the time; eight legs at 60% about 1.7%.
- GoalPulse publishes single-match AI picks (the highest-probability option per market, with their hit rates); whether and how to combine them is your call and your risk.
Traditional football pools: 14-match, pick 9, 6-match HT/FT, 4-match goals
Pools are sold by draw period. Each period's fixtures (mostly European weekend league games) are published by the center and prizes come from a pool. Settlement is again on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
| Play | Options | Rule | GoalPulse probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14-match result pool (胜负游戏) | 3 / 1 / 0 per match | Predict 1X2 for all 14 matches; 14 correct = first prize, 13 = second prize. | Use each match page's 1X2. Fourteen ~50% picks all landing happens about 0.006% of the time. |
| Pick 9 (任选9场) | 3 / 1 / 0 per match | Choose any 9 of the 14 matches; all 9 must be correct. | Same 1X2 probabilities and confidence labels. |
| 6-match HT/FT (6场半全场) | HT 3/1/0 + FT 3/1/0 per match | Half-time and full-time results of 6 matches — 12 outcomes, all correct. | HT/FT grid; its row totals give the half-time 1X2. |
| 4-match goals (4场进球) | 0 / 1 / 2 / 3+ per team | Goals scored by each of the 8 teams in 4 matches. | Per-team goals distribution (0, 1, 2, 3+) split from the same score matrix. |
Beijing Single: pari-mutuel single-match games
Beijing Single (区域联网单场竞猜) is sold in Beijing, Tianjin and Guangdong. Prizes are pari-mutuel (the SP value floats with stakes), and tickets can be singles or parlays. Football plays:
| Play | Options | Rule | GoalPulse probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 with handicap | 3 | Settle 1X2 after the published handicap (which may be 0). | Handicap table (line 0 = plain 1X2). |
| Total goals | 8: 0–6, 7+ | Same as Jingcai total goals. | Total-goals distribution. |
| Correct score | 25: 10 home-win, 5 draw, 10 away-win cells (incl. other) | Like Jingcai but without the 5-goal cells. | Score groups in the 25-option layout. |
| HT/FT | 9 | Same as Jingcai HT/FT. | HT/FT grid. |
| Goals over/under + odd/even (上下单双) | 4 | 3+ total goals = over, fewer = under; then odd or even total. | Four-way goals-parity probabilities. |
| Win-lose parlay (胜负过关) | 2 | Two-way result with a half-goal handicap; parlay only. | Bracketed by adjacent handicap lines; no parlay picks are given. |
Rules common to every football game
- Settlement is on 90 minutes including stoppage time; extra time and penalties do not count.
- Matches, handicaps and sales windows are published by the lottery center — official notices prevail; postponements follow each game's rules.
- Tickets are sold through licensed lottery outlets. GoalPulse sells nothing and takes no orders.
- Under China's Lottery Administration Regulations, tickets may not be sold to minors. Play within limits.
FAQ
- Does Jingcai count extra time?
- No. Jingcai, the traditional pools and Beijing Single all settle football on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
- How does a Home (−1) handicap settle?
- Home must win by 2+ for “win”; a 1-goal home win is “draw”; a draw or home loss is “loss”. GoalPulse lists every integer line.
- How do Jingcai and Beijing Single correct scores differ?
- Jingcai has 31 options including 5:0, 5:1 and 5:2; Beijing Single has 25 with no 5-goal cells. Both pool unlisted scores into “other”.
- Can the AI guarantee a win?
- No. It outputs probabilities: about half of 1X2 picks and roughly one in eight top correct-score picks land out of sample.
- Does GoalPulse sell tickets or give picks?
- It sells no tickets and takes no orders. Every match page shows free AI picks for each market with their out-of-sample hit rates — for reference only; acting on them is at your own risk.