Champions League · Matchday 4
Lens vs Como prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-04
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Lens win 28%, draw 26%, Como win 46%; the final score was 1:9.
Full time: Lens 1-9 Como. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Como" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Como | 46.2% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:9 | 1.3% | outside the listed scores (pooled "other" cell) |
| Total goals | 7+ goals | 2.4% | #8 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 27.7% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Lens / Como
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Miss
- Lens
- 54%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Como (46%); expected goals Lens 1.19 – 1.60 Como.
- 2.79 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (28%).
- Last five: Lens LWLWL (2 wins), Como WWWWW (5 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Lens
- 1.19
- Expected goals · Como
- 1.60
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 24% / 41% / 35%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Lens | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 96.3% |
| Home -2 | 3.7% | 7.9% | 88.4% |
| Home -1 | 11.6% | 16.3% | 72.1% |
| Home +1≈ | 53.8% | 22.0% | 24.1% |
| Home +2 | 75.9% | 14.2% | 10.0% |
| Home +3 | 90.0% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.7%
- 2:04.4%
- 2:17.0%
- 3:01.7%
- 3:12.8%
- 3:22.2%
- 4:00.5%
- 4:10.8%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:06.7%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:19.2%
- 0:27.8%
- 1:29.3%
- 0:34.2%
- 1:35.0%
- 2:33.0%
- 0:41.7%
- 1:42.0%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.5%
- 1:50.6%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.4% | 52.9% | 30.6% | 15.1% |
| Under | 22.6% | 47.1% | 69.4% | 84.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.7%
- Over, even
- 20.2%
- Under, odd
- 15.9%
- Under, even
- 31.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lens
- 20.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Como
- 30.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 30.3% | 36.2% | 21.6% | 11.9% |
| Como | 20.2% | 32.3% | 25.8% | 21.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 15.7% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 2.7% |
| Draw | D/H 10.4% | D/D 15.3% | D/A 15.7% |
| Away | A/H 1.8% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 27.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Lens
Nicknamed the Sang et Or (Blood and Gold), Lens is a northern French club that finished 2nd in Ligue 1 in 2025–26 and won the 2026 Coupe de France.
- City
- Lens, France
- Stadium
- Stade Bollaert-Delelis
- Founded
- 1906
Como
Lakeside Lombardy club in royal blue, owned by the Hartono brothers' Djarum Group, who finished 4th in Serie A in 2025–26 to reach the Champions League for the first time under possession-based coach Cesc Fàbregas.
- City
- Como, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
- Founded
- 1907
- Head coach
- Cesc Fàbregas
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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