Champions League Β· Matchday 4
Manchester United vs Roma prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-03
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Manchester United win 28%, draw 26%, Roma win 46%; the final score was 3:2.
Full time: Manchester United 3-2 Roma. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Roma" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Manchester United | 27.7% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 3:2 | 2.2% | #14 of 31 |
| Total goals | 5 goals | 8.7% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/H | 1.8% | #9 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Manchester United / Roma
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Manchester United
- 54%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Roma (46%); expected goals Manchester United 1.19 β 1.61 Roma.
- 2.79 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (28%).
- Last five: Manchester United LLLDL (0 wins), Roma WWDWW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet β the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals Β· Manchester United
- 1.19
- Expected goals Β· Roma
- 1.61
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 24% / 41% / 35%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Manchester United | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.9% | 2.7% | 96.4% |
| Home -2 | 3.6% | 7.8% | 88.6% |
| Home -1 | 11.4% | 16.2% | 72.3% |
| Home +1β | 53.5% | 22.1% | 24.4% |
| Home +2 | 75.6% | 14.3% | 10.1% |
| Home +3 | 89.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.7%
- 2:04.3%
- 2:16.9%
- 3:01.7%
- 3:12.7%
- 3:22.2%
- 4:00.5%
- 4:10.8%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:06.7%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:19.2%
- 0:27.9%
- 1:29.4%
- 0:34.2%
- 1:35.0%
- 2:33.0%
- 0:41.7%
- 1:42.0%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.5%
- 1:50.6%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.4% | 52.9% | 30.7% | 15.2% |
| Under | 22.6% | 47.1% | 69.3% | 84.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.7%
- Over, even
- 20.2%
- Under, odd
- 15.9%
- Under, even
- 31.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Manchester United
- 20.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Roma
- 30.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 30.5% | 36.2% | 21.5% | 11.8% |
| Roma | 20.1% | 32.2% | 25.9% | 21.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 15.6% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 2.7% |
| Draw | D/H 10.3% | D/D 15.2% | D/A 15.8% |
| Away | A/H 1.8% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 28.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Manchester United
One of England's most decorated clubs, founded as Newton Heath in 1878, they finished third in the 2025β26 Premier League under Michael Carrick and play in the 2026β27 Champions League.
- City
- Manchester (Old Trafford, Greater Manchester), England
- Stadium
- Old Trafford
- Founded
- 1878
- Head coach
- Michael Carrick
Roma
Roma is a historic Rome-based club that shares the Stadio Olimpico with Lazio, and it finished 3rd in Serie A in 2025β26 under Gian Piero Gasperini.
- City
- Rome, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Olimpico
- Founded
- 1927
- Head coach
- Gian Piero Gasperini
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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