Serie A Β· Matchday 10

AC Milan vs Inter prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

AC Milan
LWWDW
3 - 1
HT 3-1
Inter
WWWWD

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): AC Milan win 26%, draw 27%, Inter win 47%; the final score was 3:1.

Full time: AC Milan 3-1 Inter. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Inter" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultAC Milan26.1%#3 of 3
Correct score3:12.7%#13 of 31
Total goals4 goals15.7%#3 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.553.5%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H14.5%#4 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Miss
Draw / Inter
74%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
AC Milan
53%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:2
22%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
28%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
53%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Inter (47%); expected goals AC Milan 1.18 – 1.64 Inter.
  • 2.82 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (28%).
  • Last five: AC Milan LWWDW (3 wins), Inter WWWWD (4 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

AC Milan 26%Draw 27%Inter 47%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· AC Milan
1.18
Expected goals Β· Inter
1.64
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
23% / 42% / 35%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2AC MilanDrawInter
Home -30.9%2.6%96.6%
Home -23.4%7.5%89.0%
Home -111.0%15.1%73.9%
Home +1β‰ˆ53.0%21.6%25.4%
Home +274.6%14.7%10.7%
Home +389.3%7.0%3.7%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

AC Milan Β· Home
  • 1:05.8%
  • 2:04.1%
  • 2:16.8%
  • 3:01.6%
  • 3:12.7%
  • 3:22.2%
  • 4:00.5%
  • 4:10.8%
  • 4:20.6%
  • 5:00.1%
  • 5:10.2%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.6%
Draw
  • 0:07.2%
  • 1:112.8%
  • 2:25.6%
  • 3:31.2%
  • Other draw0.2%
Inter Β· Away
  • 0:18.5%
  • 0:28.1%
  • 1:29.5%
  • 0:34.4%
  • 1:35.2%
  • 2:33.0%
  • 0:41.8%
  • 1:42.1%
  • 2:41.2%
  • 0:50.6%
  • 1:50.7%
  • 2:50.4%
  • Other away win1.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.2%
1
14.3%
2
25.0%
3
22.3%
4
15.7%
5
8.8%
6
4.1%
7+
2.5%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over78.4%53.5%31.2%15.5%
Under21.6%46.5%68.8%84.5%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
33.0%
Over, even
20.5%
Under, odd
14.3%
Under, even
32.2%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
57.0%
Both teams to score: No
43.0%
Clean-sheet probability Β· AC Milan
19.4%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Inter
30.9%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
AC Milan30.9%36.3%21.3%11.5%
Inter19.4%31.8%26.1%22.7%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
14.5%
H/D
5.5%
H/A
2.8%
Draw
D/H
9.8%
D/D
15.9%
D/A
16.1%
Away
A/H
1.8%
A/D
5.5%
A/A
28.1%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

AC Milan

One of Italy's most storied clubs, the Rossoneri are seven-time European champions and share San Siro with Inter, with a long record of success in Serie A.

City
Milan, Italy
Stadium
San Siro (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza)
Founded
1899
Head coach
Ruben Amorim

Inter

One of Italy's most successful clubs, the Nerazzurri share San Siro with AC Milan and finished 2025–26 top of Serie A and Coppa Italia winners under Cristian Chivu.

City
Milan, Italy
Stadium
San Siro (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza)
Founded
1908
Head coach
Cristian Chivu

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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