K League 1 Β· Matchday 33

Ulsan HD FC vs Pohang Steelers prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Ulsan HD FC
WLLWW
2 - 2
HT 0-2
Pohang Steelers
DLWDD

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Ulsan HD FC win 46%, draw 29%, Pohang Steelers win 25%; the final score was 2:2.

Full time: Ulsan HD FC 2-2 Pohang Steelers. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Ulsan HD FC" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultDraw29.2%#2 of 3
Correct score2:24.7%#8 of 31
Total goals4 goals13.4%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.545.7%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeA/D5.3%#7 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Ulsan HD FC / Draw
75%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
Pohang Steelers
54%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:0
24%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
49%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
26%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Under
54%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Ulsan HD FC (46%); expected goals Ulsan HD FC 1.47 – 1.03 Pohang Steelers.
  • 2.50 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 46%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (26%).
  • Last five: Ulsan HD FC WLLWW (3 wins), Pohang Steelers DLWDD (1 wins).
  • A 29% draw probability is on the high side β€” the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Ulsan HD FC 46%Draw 29%Pohang Steelers 25%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Ulsan HD FC
1.47
Expected goals Β· Pohang Steelers
1.03
Most likely score
1:1 (14%)
Half-time result
33% / 47% / 21%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Ulsan HD FCDrawPohang Steelers
Home -32.9%6.3%90.8%
Home -29.2%14.3%76.6%
Home -1β‰ˆ23.4%22.3%54.3%
Home +174.9%15.2%9.8%
Home +290.2%7.0%2.8%
Home +397.2%2.2%0.6%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Ulsan HD FC Β· Home
  • 1:010.5%
  • 2:08.8%
  • 2:19.1%
  • 3:04.3%
  • 3:14.5%
  • 3:22.3%
  • 4:01.6%
  • 4:11.6%
  • 4:20.8%
  • 5:00.5%
  • 5:10.5%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.8%
Draw
  • 0:09.7%
  • 1:113.9%
  • 2:24.7%
  • 3:30.8%
  • Other draw0.1%
Pohang Steelers Β· Away
  • 0:17.0%
  • 0:24.4%
  • 1:26.4%
  • 0:31.5%
  • 1:32.2%
  • 2:31.6%
  • 0:40.4%
  • 1:40.6%
  • 2:40.4%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
9.7%
1
17.5%
2
27.1%
3
21.4%
4
13.4%
5
6.7%
6
2.8%
7+
1.4%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over72.8%45.7%24.3%10.9%
Under27.2%54.3%75.7%89.1%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
29.2%
Over, even
16.5%
Under, odd
17.5%
Under, even
36.8%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
51.1%
Both teams to score: No
48.9%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Ulsan HD FC
35.6%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Pohang Steelers
23.0%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Ulsan HD FC23.0%33.8%24.8%18.4%
Pohang Steelers35.6%36.8%19.0%8.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
25.7%
H/D
5.3%
H/A
1.5%
Draw
D/H
17.6%
D/D
18.6%
D/A
10.5%
Away
A/H
2.4%
A/D
5.3%
A/A
13.0%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Ulsan HD FC

Ulsan HD (formerly Ulsan Hyundai), backed by HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, is one of the K League 1's most successful clubs and won three straight league titles from 2022 to 2024.

City
Ulsan, South Korea
Stadium
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium
Founded
1983
Head coach
Kim Hyun-seok

Pohang Steelers

A K League 1 club owned by the steelmaker POSCO, the Steelers are among South Korea's most decorated sides, with several league titles and three AFC Champions League trophies.

City
Pohang, South Korea
Stadium
Pohang Steelyard
Founded
1973

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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