La Liga · Matchday 12
Villarreal vs Getafe prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Villarreal a 66% chance of winning, 21% for a draw and 13% for Getafe; the single most likely score is 2:0 (12%) with 2.80 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Villarreal
- 66%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Villarreal
- 42%
- Correct score
- 2:0 / 1:0
- 24%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 44%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Villarreal host Getafe in La Liga matchday 12 with nine days' rest, against seven for the visitors, who are also coming off a Thursday Conference League trip. Both sides have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five. Villarreal are still without Gerard Moreno and were beaten 0-6 by PSG. Getafe lost both recent away games without scoring and will be without Zaid Romero (quadriceps).
The published probabilities, the market consensus of 21 bookmakers, make Villarreal clear favourites: 66% home win, 21% draw, 13% Getafe. Expected goals are 2.03–0.78, with 2-0 and 1-0 (12% each) and 1-1 (10%) the likeliest scores. Over 2.5 goals stands at 53% and both teams scoring at 47%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 04:23 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Villarreal (66%); expected goals Villarreal 2.03 – 0.78 Getafe.
- 2.80 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (44%).
- Last five: Villarreal LWDLW (2 wins), Getafe WLDLW (2 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Villarreal 2 wins, 3 draws, Getafe 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Villarreal
- 2.03
- Expected goals · Getafe
- 0.78
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 48% / 38% / 14%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Villarreal | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 9.0% | 12.3% | 78.7% |
| Home -2 | 21.3% | 20.4% | 58.3% |
| Home -1≈ | 41.7% | 24.5% | 33.8% |
| Home +1 | 87.0% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Home +2 | 96.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Home +3 | 99.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:011.9%
- 2:012.4%
- 2:19.7%
- 3:08.4%
- 3:16.5%
- 3:22.5%
- 4:04.3%
- 4:13.3%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:01.7%
- 5:11.3%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win2.2%
- 0:06.4%
- 1:19.9%
- 2:23.8%
- 3:30.7%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:14.4%
- 0:21.8%
- 1:23.7%
- 0:30.5%
- 1:31.0%
- 2:31.0%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.2%
- 2:40.2%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.3% | 53.1% | 30.9% | 15.3% |
| Under | 22.7% | 46.9% | 69.1% | 84.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.8%
- Over, even
- 20.3%
- Under, odd
- 16.3%
- Under, even
- 30.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 47.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 52.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Villarreal
- 46.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Getafe
- 13.2%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 13.2% | 26.7% | 27.1% | 33.1% |
| Getafe | 46.0% | 35.7% | 13.9% | 4.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 43.7% | H/D 3.9% | H/A 0.8% |
| Draw | D/H 19.8% | D/D 12.9% | D/A 5.2% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 3.9% | A/A 7.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Villarreal 66.2% · Draw 20.8% · Getafe 13.0% · 2.5+ 53.1%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.75 | 7.62 | 2.5: 1.82 / 2.08 | -1.25: 2.01 / 1.89 |
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.67 | 7.40 | 2.5: 1.87 / 2.08 | -1.5: 2.35 / 1.70 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.43 | 4.82 | 7.66 | 2.5: 1.79 / 2.05 | -1: 1.68 / 2.21 |
| Coolbet | 1.47 | 4.60 | 7.50 | 2.5: 1.82 / 2.08 | -1: 1.76 / 2.16 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.46 | 4.55 | 7.20 | 2.5: 1.81 / 2.02 | -1: 1.73 / 2.14 |
| Matchbook | 1.49 | 4.70 | 8.00 | 2.5: 1.84 / 2.08 | -1.25: 2.02 / 1.88 |
| Betsson | 1.42 | 4.55 | 7.60 | 2.5: 1.81 / 2.03 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.40 | 2.5: 1.75 / 1.93 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.41 | 4.30 | 7.00 | 2.5: 1.76 / 2.02 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 1.41 | 4.55 | 7.60 | 2.5: 1.78 / 2.00 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.75 | 2.5: 1.66 / 1.91 | – |
| Tipico | 1.40 | 4.70 | 7.50 | 2.5: 1.72 / 2.05 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.43 | 4.70 | 8.00 | 2.5: 1.76 / 2.02 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.45 | 4.60 | 8.00 | 2.5: 1.77 / 2.04 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the bookmaker consensus already captures most of what matters here: Gerard Moreno's continued absence and Villarreal's humbling 0-6 by PSG are widely known, while Getafe's winless, goalless away record and their Thursday Conference League trip were equally public. The only fresh item is Zaid Romero's confirmed quadriceps injury for Getafe, which thins an already stretched squad but does not change the picture much. Villarreal remain clear favourites at home, though Getafe's defensive, low-tempo approach keeps the goal expectation modest.
- Villarreal · Gerard Moreno (muscle injury) is ruled out for a third straight match, per Diario AS. (moderate · rotowire.com)
- Villarreal · Juan Foyth, Ilias Akhomach and Alassane Diatta are also unavailable. Diatta has a long-term hamstring tear. (moderate · abc.com.py)
- Villarreal · Nathan Saliba returns after missing four games with a muscle injury. Pape Gueye is back from suspension. (minor · abc.com.py)
- Villarreal · Villarreal lost 0-6 at home to PSG in the Champions League on Tuesday. The team is on two straight defeats and the match is their 1,000th in the top flight. (moderate · vavel.com)
- Villarreal · Villarreal had more rest than Getafe, who played in Europe on Thursday. Sports Mole expects changes to the XI that faced PSG, with Moleiro, Mikautadze and Cardona likely to start. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Getafe · Zaid Romero is out with a quadriceps injury. Bordalás confirmed it and said the club won't risk him before the international break. (moderate · infobae.com)
- Getafe · Christantus Uche is out long-term with a cruciate ligament injury, and Juanmi is still recovering from a knee injury. (minor · whoscored.com)
- Getafe · Getafe lost 0-1 to Brighton in the Conference League on Thursday. Bordalás has a thin squad and is managing minutes, so rotation is likely. (moderate · jornadaperfecta.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Villarreal
Nicknamed the Yellow Submarine, this small-town club from Castellón finished third in La Liga in 2025–26 and is back in the Champions League.
- City
- Villarreal, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio de la Cerámica
- Founded
- 1923
- Head coach
- Iñigo Pérez
Getafe
A club from the Madrid suburb of Getafe, known as the Azulones, who have been a regular La Liga side since 2017 and play a disciplined, physical, defensively organised style under José Bordalás.
- City
- Getafe (Community of Madrid), Spain
- Stadium
- Coliseum (Estadio Coliseum)
- Founded
- 1983
- Head coach
- José Bordalás
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Villarreal
- LEspanyol0-1 · 10-30
- W@ Valencia2-1 · 10-24
- DElche0-0 · 10-17
- L@ Real Madrid0-1 · 10-10
- WLevante3-1 · 09-20
Getafe
- WSevilla3-1 · 11-01
- L@ Athletic Club0-4 · 10-25
- DRayo Vallecano1-1 · 10-19
- L@ Barcelona0-3 · 10-10
- WMálaga1-0 · 09-20
Villarreal 9 days rest · Getafe 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-02-14Getafe 2-1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 2025-12-06Villarreal 2-0 GetafeLa Liga
- 2025-03-30Getafe 1-2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 2024-10-20Villarreal 1-1 GetafeLa Liga
- 2024-02-16Villarreal 1-1 GetafeLa Liga
- 2023-09-30Getafe 0-0 VillarrealLa Liga
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