La Liga · Matchday 12
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Real Sociedad a 55% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 22% for Rayo Vallecano; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.12 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Real Sociedad
- 55%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Rayo Vallecano
- 45%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 35%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Real Sociedad host Rayo Vallecano in La Liga Round 12 with seven days' rest. They lost 2-1 at Athletic Club last time out, but had won the four games before that, scoring at least two goals each time. Rayo have had eight days' rest after a mixed run of W 3-0 v Celta Vigo, L 0-3 v Elche, two 1-1 draws and a 2-1 win v Espanyol. Web reports, which may be incomplete, say Oyarzabal is cleared after his knock and Pathe Ciss returns for Rayo, who are without Oscar Valentín and Álvaro García. Sarr is a doubt for the hosts, with possible full-back rotation after their European game. Rayo are unbeaten in the last four meetings (two wins, two draws).
The published probabilities, the market consensus, make Real Sociedad favourites: 56% home win, 23% draw, 21% away win. Expected goals are 1.97–1.14, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 2:1 (10%) and 2:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals is put at 60% and both teams scoring at 59%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 01:23 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Real Sociedad (55%); expected goals Real Sociedad 1.95 – 1.17 Rayo Vallecano.
- Goals look likely: 3.12 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (35%).
- Last five: Real Sociedad LWWWW (4 wins), Rayo Vallecano WLDDW (2 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Real Sociedad 0 wins, 4 draws, Rayo Vallecano 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Real Sociedad
- 1.95
- Expected goals · Rayo Vallecano
- 1.17
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 42% / 37% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 6.2% | 9.4% | 84.4% |
| Home -2 | 15.6% | 16.9% | 67.5% |
| Home -1≈ | 32.5% | 22.3% | 45.2% |
| Home +1 | 78.1% | 13.1% | 8.8% |
| Home +2 | 91.2% | 6.1% | 2.7% |
| Home +3 | 97.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.9%
- 2:08.4%
- 2:19.8%
- 3:05.5%
- 3:16.4%
- 3:23.7%
- 4:02.7%
- 4:13.1%
- 4:21.8%
- 5:01.0%
- 5:11.2%
- 5:20.7%
- Other home win2.5%
- 0:05.1%
- 1:110.8%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.5%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:14.5%
- 0:23.0%
- 1:25.9%
- 0:31.2%
- 1:32.3%
- 2:32.2%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.5% | 60.2% | 37.9% | 20.5% |
| Under | 17.5% | 39.8% | 62.1% | 79.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.1%
- Over, even
- 24.1%
- Under, odd
- 12.4%
- Under, even
- 27.4%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Real Sociedad
- 31.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Rayo Vallecano
- 14.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 14.3% | 27.8% | 27.0% | 30.9% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 31.1% | 36.3% | 21.2% | 11.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 35.0% | H/D 5.2% | H/A 1.6% |
| Draw | D/H 16.5% | D/D 13.0% | D/A 7.8% |
| Away | A/H 3.2% | A/D 5.2% | A/A 12.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Real Sociedad 54.8% · Draw 23.4% · Rayo Vallecano 21.9% · 2.5+ 60.2%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 4.14 | 4.32 | 3: 1.94 / 1.94 | -0.75: 2.00 / 1.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 4.26 | 4.67 | 2.5: 1.64 / 2.46 | -1.5: 2.99 / 1.47 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72 | 4.24 | 4.59 | 3: 1.92 / 1.92 | -1: 2.19 / 1.70 |
| Coolbet | 1.75 | 4.15 | 4.55 | 3: 1.96 / 1.93 | -1: 2.28 / 1.69 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.72 | 4.15 | 4.55 | 2.5: 1.59 / 2.39 | -1: 2.22 / 1.68 |
| Matchbook | 1.83 | 4.10 | 4.40 | 2.5: 1.62 / 2.52 | -0.75: 2.00 / 1.89 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 4.05 | 4.30 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.48 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 1.78 | 3.95 | 4.30 | 3.5: 2.26 / 1.55 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.25 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.32 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 1.72 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.45 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 2.5: 1.50 / 2.18 | – |
| Tipico | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.40 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.55 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.73 | 4.25 | 4.70 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.32 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 2.5: 1.60 / 2.35 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the late news tilts marginally towards Real Sociedad: Oyarzabal has been cleared after his knock against Lyon, while Rayo travel without Oscar Valentín and Álvaro García, two of their most important players. The home side's own doubts over Sarr and possible post-Europa rotation at full-back, plus Pathe Ciss returning for Rayo, offset part of that edge, so the overall picture stays close to the bookmaker consensus. Given Real Sociedad's recent run of open, high-scoring matches, a game with goals remains the more likely scenario.
- Real Sociedad · Mikel Oyarzabal is available after a back knock in Thursday's Europa League draw with Lyon, and the club confirmed he is fit. (major · rotowire.com)
- Real Sociedad · Mamadou Sarr is a doubt after being taken off at half-time against Lyon with a calf problem. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Real Sociedad · Arsen Zakharyan (ankle) has been back in group training but missed the last two games, so his availability is unconfirmed. Luken Beitia is also working his way back. (minor · futbolfantasy.com)
- Real Sociedad · Alvaro Odriozola is out long-term with a serious knee injury. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Real Sociedad · Real Sociedad played in the Europa League on Thursday, so some rotation is possible, for example Hector Fort for Jon Aramburu at right-back. They lost 1-2 at Athletic Club in their last league game. (moderate · futbolfantasy.com)
- Rayo Vallecano · Beñat San José confirmed that Oscar Valentín (knee) and Álvaro García (hamstring tear) are out. (major · jornadaperfecta.com)
- Rayo Vallecano · Pathe Ciss returns from a one-match suspension for yellow-card accumulation. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Rayo Vallecano · Augusto Batalla, Luiz Felipe and Kumbulla remain long-term injured. (minor · news.bet365.es)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Real Sociedad
A Basque club from San Sebastián known for its youth academy and possession-based football, it won the 2025–26 Copa del Rey under Pellegrino Matarazzo.
- City
- San Sebastián (Donostia), Spain
- Stadium
- Reale Arena (Anoeta)
- Founded
- 1909
- Head coach
- Pellegrino Matarazzo
Rayo Vallecano
A working-class club from Madrid's Vallecas district, Rayo is known for its passionate local identity and generally competes in the lower-middle part of La Liga.
- City
- Madrid, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio de Vallecas
- Founded
- 1924
- Head coach
- Beñat San José
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Real Sociedad
- L@ Athletic Club1-2 · 11-01
- WLevante2-1 · 10-25
- W@ Málaga5-2 · 10-18
- WDeportivo La Coruña3-2 · 10-11
- W@ Valencia3-2 · 09-20
Rayo Vallecano
- WCelta Vigo3-0 · 10-31
- LElche0-3 · 10-24
- D@ Getafe1-1 · 10-19
- D@ Osasuna1-1 · 09-19
- WEspanyol2-1 · 09-15
Real Sociedad 7 days rest · Rayo Vallecano 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-26Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 2025-10-05Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 2025-03-16Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 2024-08-18Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 2024-01-27Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 2023-10-29Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real SociedadLa Liga
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