Primeira Liga · Matchday 11
Estoril vs Marítimo prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Estoril a 46% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 27% for Marítimo; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.67 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Estoril / Draw
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Marítimo
- 54%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 23%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 26%
- Over / under 2.5
- Under
- 50%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Estoril host Marítimo in Primeira Liga Matchday 11, with both sides struggling. Estoril are bottom without a win and have lost their last five matches, most recently 0-4 at FC Porto, and they have had eight days of rest. They regain Ricard Sánchez, Holsgrove and João Carvalho, who were rested at Porto, though striker Begraoui is at best a bench option. Marítimo, on seven days' rest, have not won in eight league matches and are without Yellu Santiago.
The market consensus makes Estoril favourites at 46%, with the draw and an away win both at 27%. Expected goals are 1.55–1.13, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 1:0 (10%) and 2:1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 50%, and both teams scoring at 54%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 02:25 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Estoril (46%); expected goals Estoril 1.54 – 1.13 Marítimo.
- 2.67 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 50%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (26%).
- Last five: Estoril LLLLL (0 wins), Marítimo LLLDL (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 19 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Estoril
- 1.54
- Expected goals · Marítimo
- 1.13
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 33% / 45% / 22%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Estoril | Draw | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.2% | 6.4% | 90.4% |
| Home -2 | 9.6% | 14.1% | 76.3% |
| Home -1≈ | 23.7% | 22.1% | 54.2% |
| Home +1 | 73.0% | 16.0% | 11.0% |
| Home +2 | 89.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% |
| Home +3 | 96.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.7%
- 2:08.2%
- 2:19.3%
- 3:04.2%
- 3:14.8%
- 3:22.7%
- 4:01.6%
- 4:11.8%
- 4:21.0%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:07.8%
- 1:113.0%
- 2:25.3%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.9%
- 0:24.4%
- 1:26.8%
- 0:31.7%
- 1:32.6%
- 2:32.0%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75.6% | 50.0% | 28.0% | 13.3% |
| Under | 24.4% | 50.0% | 72.0% | 86.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 31.3%
- Over, even
- 18.7%
- Under, odd
- 16.5%
- Under, even
- 33.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 54.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Estoril
- 32.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Marítimo
- 21.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 21.4% | 33.0% | 25.4% | 20.2% |
| Marítimo | 32.2% | 36.5% | 20.7% | 10.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 25.7% | H/D 5.2% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 17.4% | D/D 16.7% | D/A 11.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.2% | A/A 14.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Estoril 45.8% · Draw 27.2% · Marítimo 27.0% · 2.5+ 50.0%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.57 | 3.53 | 2.5: 1.93 / 1.94 | -0.25: 1.83 / 2.07 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.55 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.90 | -0.5: 2.02 / 1.76 |
| GTbets | 2.08 | 3.48 | 3.50 | 2.5: 1.86 / 1.91 | -0.5: 2.08 / 1.73 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.05 | 3.44 | 3.38 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.89 | 0: 1.51 / 2.43 |
| Matchbook | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.45 | 2.5: 1.92 / 1.94 | -0.25: 1.82 / 2.06 |
| Betsson | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.88 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.5: 1.88 / 1.78 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.88 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.88 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.5: 1.81 / 1.71 | – |
| Tipico | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.5: 1.80 / 1.95 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.92 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.5: 1.88 / 1.79 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.92 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.5: 1.88 / 1.79 | – |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.85 | – |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 | – | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 19 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that this is a meeting of two teams in deep crisis: Estoril are bottom without a win and Marítimo have not won in eight league matches. Estoril regain Ricard Sánchez, Holsgrove and João Carvalho after resting them at Porto, but their key striker Begraoui is at best a bench option, while Marítimo are without Yellu Santiago. None of this is new information, so the bookmaker consensus, which already prices in home advantage and both sides' poor form, looks about right.
- Estoril · Sérgio Raimundo, promoted from the under-23s after Vasco Matos left on 15 October, has reportedly been kept as coach until the end of the season. (moderate · bolanarede.pt)
- Estoril · Estoril are bottom on 2 points from 10 games, with 8 defeats, 2 draws and no win. Record calls this match a 'final'. (moderate · record.pt)
- Estoril · Right-back Ricard Sánchez and midfielders Holsgrove and João Carvalho were rested at Porto and are expected to return to the XI. (moderate · record.pt)
- Estoril · Striker Begraoui, Estoril's key attacker, has been out with a muscle injury since the last international break. He is pushing to be an option, probably from the bench. (moderate · record.pt)
- Marítimo · Yellu Santiago is out injured with no return date. (minor · diadejogo.pt)
- Marítimo · Midfielder Maxime Domínguez has recovered from his physical problems and may return to the squad. (minor · record.pt)
- Marítimo · Marítimo are 14th on 8 points and winless in 8 league games (since matchday 2), with three straight defeats and 21 goals conceded. Coach Van der Gaag calls this match decisive and about 500 fans are expected to travel. (moderate · diadejogo.pt)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Estoril
Estoril, nicknamed the Canaries, are a Lisbon-area club that returned to the Primeira Liga in 2021, finished 10th in 2025–26 and have been in the top flight since.
- City
- Estoril (Cascais), Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
- Founded
- 1939
Marítimo
Funchal-based club from Madeira, nicknamed the Barreiros side, who won the 2025–26 Segunda Liga title and are back in the Primeira Liga in 2026–27 after three years away.
- City
- Funchal, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio do Marítimo (Estádio dos Barreiros)
- Founded
- 1910
- Head coach
- Mitchell van der Gaag
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Estoril
- L@ FC Porto0-4 · 10-31
- LMoreirense1-3 · 10-25
- L@ Académico Viseu1-2 · 10-10
- LCasa Pia1-2 · 09-20
- L@ Braga0-1 · 09-14
Marítimo
- LSanta Clara0-2 · 11-01
- L@ Vitória Guimarães0-5 · 10-23
- LFC Porto1-2 · 10-10
- D@ Gil Vicente1-1 · 09-19
- L@ Moreirense1-3 · 09-14
Estoril 8 days rest · Marítimo 7 days rest
Head to head
No recent meetings in the dataset.
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