Ligue 1 · Matchday 10
Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Auxerre a 20% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 56% for Paris FC; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 2.89 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Paris FC
- 56%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Auxerre
- 44%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 34%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 55%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Auxerre have had a difficult start, conceding 23 goals in nine games, and will be without the suspended Dioubaté, with Tuanzebe a possible absentee. Their last five brought two wins, a draw and two defeats, including a 1-5 loss at Strasbourg. Paris FC have won three of their last five, including 4-3 v Rennes and 3-1 v Monaco, but top scorer Sinayoko is a doubt alongside other attacking options. Both sides have had six days' rest, and the last two meetings ended 0-0 and 1-1.
Paris FC are the favourites at 53%, with the draw at 24% and an Auxerre win at 22%. Expected goals are 1.09–1.81, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 1:2 (10%) and 0:1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 55% and both teams scoring at 56%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:43 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Paris FC (56%); expected goals Auxerre 1.03 – 1.86 Paris FC.
- 2.89 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 55%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (34%).
- Last five: Auxerre LDWLW (2 wins), Paris FC WLWLW (3 wins).
- Last 2 meetings in the dataset: Auxerre 0 wins, 2 draws, Paris FC 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Auxerre
- 1.03
- Expected goals · Paris FC
- 1.86
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 19% / 41% / 41%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Auxerre | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.5% | 1.6% | 97.9% |
| Home -2 | 2.1% | 5.3% | 92.6% |
| Home -1 | 7.4% | 12.6% | 80.0% |
| Home +1≈ | 43.8% | 23.3% | 32.9% |
| Home +2 | 67.1% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| Home +3 | 84.6% | 9.4% | 6.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:05.1%
- 2:02.9%
- 2:15.5%
- 3:01.0%
- 3:11.9%
- 3:21.8%
- 4:00.3%
- 4:10.5%
- 4:20.5%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.4%
- 0:06.2%
- 1:111.3%
- 2:25.1%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:19.7%
- 0:29.6%
- 1:29.9%
- 0:36.0%
- 1:36.1%
- 2:33.2%
- 0:42.8%
- 1:42.9%
- 2:41.5%
- 0:51.0%
- 1:51.1%
- 2:50.5%
- Other away win2.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.0% | 55.2% | 32.9% | 16.7% |
| Under | 21.0% | 44.8% | 67.1% | 83.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.8%
- Over, even
- 21.4%
- Under, odd
- 14.8%
- Under, even
- 30.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Auxerre
- 15.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Paris FC
- 35.7%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 35.7% | 36.8% | 19.0% | 8.6% |
| Paris FC | 15.5% | 28.9% | 26.9% | 28.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 10.7% | H/D 4.9% | H/A 3.1% |
| Draw | D/H 7.9% | D/D 14.0% | D/A 18.7% |
| Away | A/H 1.4% | A/D 4.9% | A/A 34.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Auxerre 20.1% · Draw 23.8% · Paris FC 56.2% · 2.5+ 55.2%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 4.99 | 4.11 | 1.71 | 2.75: 1.98 / 1.93 | +0.75: 2.01 / 1.91 |
| 1xBet | 4.88 | 4.21 | 1.75 | 2.5: 1.77 / 2.22 | +1.5: 1.47 / 2.99 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.95 | 4.00 | 1.71 | 2.5: 1.74 / 2.16 | +0.5: 2.22 / 1.71 |
| Coolbet | 4.70 | 4.11 | 1.73 | 2.5: 1.74 / 2.19 | +1: 1.69 / 2.29 |
| GTbets | 4.60 | 3.91 | 1.69 | 2.5: 1.71 / 2.10 | +0.5: 2.12 / 1.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.70 | 2.5: 1.72 / 2.15 | +1: 1.69 / 2.20 |
| Betsson | 5.20 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 2.5: 1.73 / 2.13 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 4.90 | 3.95 | 1.68 | 2.5: 1.67 / 2.03 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.79 | 2.5: 1.71 / 2.10 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 5.20 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 2.5: 1.70 / 2.10 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.68 | 2.5: 1.62 / 1.97 | – |
| Tipico | 5.00 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 2.5: 1.67 / 2.15 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.35 | 3.80 | 1.73 | 2.5: 1.71 / 2.10 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.79 | 2.5: 1.74 / 2.12 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 22 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Paris FC are clear favourites at a struggling Auxerre side that has conceded 23 goals in nine games and is without the suspended Dioubaté and possibly Tuanzebe. However, the visitors' injury list is growing, with top scorer Sinayoko a doubt alongside several attacking options, and their away record is modest, so we trim the away price slightly. With both defences leaking, a game with three or more goals remains more likely than not.
- Auxerre · Lamfia Dioubaté is suspended for one match after his red card at Strasbourg. (minor · topmercato.com)
- Auxerre · Bryan Okoh and Assane Dioussé are out with cruciate ligament injuries, and Yvan Zaddy is out after knee surgery. (moderate · topmercato.com)
- Auxerre · Axel Tuanzebe, a regular starter in central defence, missed training this week with an adductor problem and will be assessed before kick-off. (moderate · topmercato.com)
- Auxerre · Sékou Fofana (groin) is doubtful but has a good chance of making the squad. Rémy Labeau Lascary is back in the squad. (minor · topmercato.com)
- Auxerre · Auxerre have the worst defence in Ligue 1 with 23 goals conceded in 9 games. They are 14th on 10 points after a 1-5 loss at Strasbourg. (moderate · ruedesjoueurs.com)
- Paris FC · Lassine Sinayoko was injured in the win over Monaco, and his availability is unclear. He is the league's top scorer with 8 goals, and Sissoko is mentioned as the alternative. (major · ruedesjoueurs.com)
- Paris FC · Nhoa Sangui is out injured. Adama Camara (hamstring), Jonathan Ikoné and Luca Koleosho are doubtful, and Rudy Matondo is also reported doubtful. (moderate · topmercato.com)
- Paris FC · Paris FC are 4th on 17 points, three behind PSG. A win could lift them to provisional 2nd, and they have only one away win so far this season. (moderate · topmercato.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Auxerre
A Burgundy club that won the 1995–96 French league and double and four Coupe de France titles under Guy Roux, and returned to Ligue 1 in 2024 after a spell in the second division.
- City
- Auxerre, France
- Stadium
- Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
- Founded
- 1905
Paris FC
A Paris club founded in 1969 and promoted to Ligue 1 in 2025 for its first top-flight season since 1979, it finished 11th in 2025–26 and has played at Stade Jean-Bouin since 2025.
- City
- Paris, France
- Stadium
- Stade Jean-Bouin
- Founded
- 1969
- Head coach
- Liam Rosenior
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Auxerre
- L@ Strasbourg1-5 · 11-01
- DLe Mans1-1 · 10-25
- W@ Le Havre3-1 · 10-18
- L@ Rennes1-4 · 10-11
- WBrest2-1 · 09-20
Paris FC
- WMonaco3-1 · 11-01
- L@ Lens1-2 · 10-24
- WRennes4-3 · 10-18
- L@ Lorient0-1 · 10-10
- WStrasbourg2-1 · 09-19
Auxerre 6 days rest · Paris FC 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-02-08Auxerre 0-0 Paris FCLigue 1
- 2025-11-29Paris FC 1-1 AuxerreLigue 1
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