Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 35
Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Mirassol a 39% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 33% for Atlético Mineiro; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.71 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Mirassol / Atlético Mineiro
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Atlético Mineiro
- 61%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 51%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Mirassol 39%, draw 28%, Atlético Mineiro 33% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.71 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 51%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
- Last five: Mirassol WLDWL (2 wins), Atlético Mineiro LLLWW (2 wins).
- Last 3 meetings in the dataset: Mirassol 0 wins, 1 draws, Atlético Mineiro 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 13 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Mirassol
- 1.43
- Expected goals · Atlético Mineiro
- 1.28
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 31% / 41% / 27%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Mirassol | Draw | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.2% | 5.0% | 92.8% |
| Home -2 | 7.2% | 12.0% | 80.8% |
| Home -1≈ | 19.2% | 20.3% | 60.5% |
| Home +1 | 67.1% | 18.2% | 14.7% |
| Home +2 | 85.3% | 9.7% | 5.0% |
| Home +3 | 95.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.5%
- 2:06.8%
- 2:18.7%
- 3:03.2%
- 3:14.1%
- 3:22.6%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.5%
- 4:20.9%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win0.9%
- 0:07.6%
- 1:113.2%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:17.6%
- 0:25.5%
- 1:27.8%
- 0:32.3%
- 1:33.3%
- 2:32.4%
- 0:40.8%
- 1:41.1%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76.3% | 50.9% | 28.8% | 13.8% |
| Under | 23.7% | 49.1% | 71.2% | 86.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 31.7%
- Over, even
- 19.1%
- Under, odd
- 16.1%
- Under, even
- 33.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Mirassol
- 27.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Atlético Mineiro
- 24.0%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 24.0% | 34.3% | 24.4% | 17.3% |
| Atlético Mineiro | 27.7% | 35.6% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 23.8% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 13.4% | D/D 16.4% | D/A 11.5% |
| Away | A/H 2.3% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 19.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Mirassol 39.5% · Draw 27.7% · Atlético Mineiro 32.9% · 2.5+ 50.9%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.50 | 2.92 | 2.5: 1.88 / 1.96 | 0: 1.76 / 2.10 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.34 | 3.40 | 2.83 | 2.5: 1.83 / 1.91 | 0: 1.71 / 2.04 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.42 | 3.34 | 2.72 | 2.5: 1.81 / 1.90 | -0.5: 2.36 / 1.52 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.85 | 2.5: 1.82 / 1.85 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 2.17 | 3.15 | 2.80 | 2.5: 1.74 / 1.78 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.28 | 3.35 | 2.95 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.89 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.28 | 3.35 | 2.95 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.89 | – |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.75 | 2.5: 1.80 / 1.91 | – |
| 888sport | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.75 | – | – |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.22 | 3.12 | 2.57 | – | – |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.10 | 3.00 | 2.50 | – | – |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.55 | – | – |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.20 | 3.15 | 2.50 | – | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 12:20 PM UTC
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Club profiles
Mirassol
A small-city club from the interior of São Paulo state, Mirassol finished fourth in the 2025 Brasileirão in their first top-flight season despite having the league's smallest budget, which earned them their first Copa Libertadores place.
- City
- Mirassol, Brazil
- Stadium
- Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
- Founded
- 1925
- Head coach
- Rafael Guanaes
Atlético Mineiro
Nicknamed "Galo", this black-and-white Belo Horizonte club won the 2021 Brasileirão and the 2013 Copa Libertadores, and plays at its own Arena MRV.
- City
- Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Stadium
- Arena MRV
- Founded
- 1908
- Head coach
- Eduardo Domínguez
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Mirassol
- W@ Chapecoense2-1 · 11-03
- L@ Corinthians0-2 · 10-30
- DSão Paulo FC1-1 · 10-24
- WInternacional2-0 · 10-16
- L@ Bahia0-1 · 10-11
Atlético Mineiro
- L@ Botafogo0-1 · 11-05
- LCruzeiro0-1 · 10-29
- L@ Flamengo2-3 · 10-26
- WCoritiba1-0 · 10-17
- WSantos2-1 · 10-11
Mirassol 11 days rest · Atlético Mineiro 10 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-16Atlético Mineiro 3-1 MirassolBrasileirão Série A
- 2025-09-28Atlético Mineiro 1-0 MirassolBrasileirão Série A
- 2025-04-26Mirassol 2-2 Atlético MineiroBrasileirão Série A
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