J1 League Β· Matchday 13
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Fagiano Okayama win 25%, draw 27%, FC Tokyo win 49%; the final score was 0:4.
Full time: Fagiano Okayama 0-4 FC Tokyo. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "FC Tokyo" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | FC Tokyo | 48.7% | most likely |
| Correct score | 0:4 | 2.1% | #17 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 17.4% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 27.2% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Draw / FC Tokyo
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
- Fagiano Okayama
- 51%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 27%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour FC Tokyo (49%); expected goals Fagiano Okayama 1.28 β 1.84 FC Tokyo.
- Goals look likely: 3.11 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (27%).
- Last five: Fagiano Okayama LWLLL (1 wins), FC Tokyo WDWWW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Fagiano Okayama
- 1.28
- Expected goals Β· FC Tokyo
- 1.84
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 22% / 43% / 35%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | Draw | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 96.3% |
| Home -2 | 3.7% | 7.4% | 88.9% |
| Home -1 | 11.1% | 13.6% | 75.3% |
| Home +1β | 51.3% | 20.4% | 28.2% |
| Home +2 | 71.8% | 15.4% | 12.9% |
| Home +3 | 87.1% | 8.0% | 4.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.8%
- 2:03.6%
- 2:16.7%
- 3:01.5%
- 3:12.8%
- 3:22.6%
- 4:00.5%
- 4:10.9%
- 4:20.8%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.9%
- 0:06.3%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:26.1%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:16.3%
- 0:27.5%
- 1:29.6%
- 0:34.6%
- 1:35.9%
- 2:33.7%
- 0:42.1%
- 1:42.7%
- 2:41.7%
- 0:50.8%
- 1:51.0%
- 2:50.6%
- Other away win2.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83.6% | 60.1% | 37.8% | 20.4% |
| Under | 16.4% | 39.9% | 62.2% | 79.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.0%
- Over, even
- 24.1%
- Under, odd
- 10.1%
- Under, even
- 29.8%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 37.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Fagiano Okayama
- 16.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· FC Tokyo
- 27.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | 27.9% | 35.6% | 22.7% | 13.7% |
| FC Tokyo | 16.0% | 29.3% | 26.9% | 27.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 12.6% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 3.4% |
| Draw | D/H 10.1% | D/D 15.2% | D/A 18.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 27.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Fagiano Okayama
Okayama's J1 League club, named after the Italian word for pheasant, who reached the top flight in 2025 and often line up in a 3-4-2-1 under Takashi Kiyama.
- City
- Okayama, Japan
- Stadium
- JFE Harenokuni Stadium
- Founded
- 1975
- Head coach
- Takashi Kiyama
FC Tokyo
A Tokyo-based J1 League club that grew out of the Tokyo Gas company team and plays at Ajinomoto Stadium in ChΕfu. It was in the upper part of the J1 table in the 2026 season.
- City
- Tokyo (ChΕfu), Japan
- Stadium
- Ajinomoto Stadium
- Founded
- 1935
- Head coach
- Rikizo Matsuhashi
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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