EFL Championship Β· Matchday 14
Derby County vs Norwich City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Derby County win 25%, draw 25%, Norwich City win 50%; the final score was 0:4.
Full time: Derby County 0-4 Norwich City. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Norwich City" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Norwich City | 49.7% | most likely |
| Correct score | 0:4 | 2.1% | #16 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 16.7% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 31.2% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Derby County / Norwich City
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
- Derby County
- 50%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 31%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 57%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Norwich City (50%); expected goals Derby County 1.21 β 1.77 Norwich City.
- 2.98 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (31%).
- Last five: Derby County LDLLD (0 wins), Norwich City WWLLL (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Derby County
- 1.21
- Expected goals Β· Norwich City
- 1.77
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 23% / 39% / 38%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Derby County | Draw | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.9% | 2.5% | 96.6% |
| Home -2 | 3.4% | 7.2% | 89.4% |
| Home -1 | 10.6% | 14.8% | 74.6% |
| Home +1β | 50.3% | 21.9% | 27.7% |
| Home +2 | 72.3% | 15.4% | 12.4% |
| Home +3 | 87.6% | 7.8% | 4.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:05.3%
- 2:03.7%
- 2:16.6%
- 3:01.5%
- 3:12.7%
- 3:22.4%
- 4:00.5%
- 4:10.8%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:05.9%
- 1:111.7%
- 2:25.8%
- 3:31.4%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.2%
- 0:27.9%
- 1:29.6%
- 0:34.7%
- 1:35.7%
- 2:33.4%
- 0:42.1%
- 1:42.5%
- 2:41.5%
- 0:50.7%
- 1:50.9%
- 2:50.5%
- Other away win1.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 80.6% | 57.3% | 34.9% | 18.2% |
| Under | 19.4% | 42.7% | 65.1% | 81.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.8%
- Over, even
- 22.5%
- Under, odd
- 13.5%
- Under, even
- 29.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Derby County
- 17.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Norwich City
- 29.7%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County | 29.7% | 36.1% | 21.9% | 12.3% |
| Norwich City | 17.0% | 30.1% | 26.7% | 26.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 14.6% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.9% |
| Draw | D/H 9.0% | D/D 14.1% | D/A 15.6% |
| Away | A/H 1.8% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 31.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Derby County
Nicknamed the Rams, Derby County are a two-time English champions (1971β72, 1974β75) who play at Pride Park Stadium.
- City
- Derby, England
- Stadium
- Pride Park Stadium
- Founded
- 1884
Norwich City
Norfolk club nicknamed the Canaries, who play their home games at Carrow Road and compete in the EFL Championship.
- City
- Norwich, England
- Stadium
- Carrow Road
- Founded
- 1902
- Head coach
- Philippe Clement
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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