Premier League Β· Matchday 9
Newcastle United vs Everton prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Newcastle United win 44%, draw 27%, Everton win 29%; the final score was 0:1.
Full time: Newcastle United 0-1 Everton. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Newcastle United" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Everton | 28.9% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:1 | 6.2% | #7 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 14.4% | #4 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.3% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/A | 10.3% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Newcastle United / Everton
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Everton
- 56%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 27%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Newcastle United (44%); expected goals Newcastle United 1.58 β 1.25 Everton.
- 2.83 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (27%).
- Last five: Newcastle United WLLWL (2 wins), Everton LLDWD (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Newcastle United
- 1.58
- Expected goals Β· Everton
- 1.25
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 34% / 40% / 25%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Newcastle United | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.1% | 6.2% | 90.6% |
| Home -2 | 9.4% | 13.6% | 77.0% |
| Home -1β | 23.0% | 21.0% | 56.0% |
| Home +1 | 71.1% | 16.3% | 12.7% |
| Home +2 | 87.3% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| Home +3 | 95.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.2%
- 2:07.4%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:03.9%
- 3:14.9%
- 3:23.0%
- 4:01.5%
- 4:11.9%
- 4:21.2%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.3%
- 0:07.1%
- 1:112.8%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.2%
- 0:24.6%
- 1:27.3%
- 0:31.9%
- 1:33.0%
- 2:32.4%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.5% | 53.7% | 31.4% | 15.7% |
| Under | 21.5% | 46.3% | 68.6% | 84.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.1%
- Over, even
- 20.6%
- Under, odd
- 14.4%
- Under, even
- 31.9%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Newcastle United
- 28.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Everton
- 20.6%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 20.6% | 32.5% | 25.7% | 21.2% |
| Everton | 28.7% | 35.8% | 22.3% | 13.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 26.9% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 1.9% |
| Draw | D/H 14.5% | D/D 15.8% | D/A 10.3% |
| Away | A/H 2.6% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 16.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Newcastle United
Known as the Magpies for their black-and-white stripes, Newcastle are a long-established Premier League club. They are in their tenth consecutive top-flight season and have been coached by Matthias Jaissle since Eddie Howe left in the summer of 2026.
- City
- Newcastle upon Tyne, England
- Stadium
- St James' Park
- Founded
- 1892
- Head coach
- Matthias Jaissle
Everton
Nicknamed the Toffees, Everton are one of English football's oldest clubs and have a long top-flight history. They moved to the new Hill Dickinson Stadium in 2025 and are managed by David Moyes.
- City
- Liverpool, England
- Stadium
- Hill Dickinson Stadium
- Founded
- 1878
- Head coach
- David Moyes
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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