La Liga · Matchday 11

Elche vs Valencia prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Elche
WDDWL
0 - 1
HT 0-0
Valencia
LDDLW

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Elche win 42%, draw 28%, Valencia win 30%; the final score was 0:1.

Full time: Elche 0-1 Valencia. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Elche" — missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultValencia29.7%#2 of 3
Correct score0:16.6%#7 of 31
Total goals1 goals14.9%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.548.1%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/A10.9%#5 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Elche / Valencia
72%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
Valencia
58%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
22%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
25%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
52%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Elche (42%); expected goals Elche 1.51 – 1.24 Valencia.
  • 2.75 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (25%).
  • Last five: Elche WDDWL (2 wins), Valencia LDDLW (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Elche 42%Draw 28%Valencia 30%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Elche
1.51
Expected goals · Valencia
1.24
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
33% / 42% / 25%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2ElcheDrawValencia
Home -32.8%5.8%91.5%
Home -28.5%13.1%78.4%
Home -1≈21.6%20.7%57.7%
Home +170.3%16.7%13.1%
Home +286.9%8.8%4.3%
Home +395.7%3.2%1.2%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Elche · Home
  • 1:08.3%
  • 2:07.3%
  • 2:19.0%
  • 3:03.7%
  • 3:14.6%
  • 3:22.8%
  • 4:01.4%
  • 4:11.7%
  • 4:21.1%
  • 5:00.4%
  • 5:10.5%
  • 5:20.3%
  • Other home win1.1%
Draw
  • 0:07.7%
  • 1:113.3%
  • 2:25.6%
  • 3:31.2%
  • Other draw0.1%
Valencia · Away
  • 0:16.6%
  • 0:24.9%
  • 1:27.4%
  • 0:32.0%
  • 1:33.1%
  • 2:32.3%
  • 0:40.6%
  • 1:40.9%
  • 2:40.7%
  • 0:50.2%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.7%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.7%
1
14.9%
2
25.5%
3
22.2%
4
15.2%
5
8.4%
6
3.8%
7+
2.2%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over77.4%51.9%29.7%14.5%
Under22.6%48.1%70.3%85.5%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
32.2%
Over, even
19.6%
Under, odd
14.9%
Under, even
33.3%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
56.7%
Both teams to score: No
43.3%
Clean-sheet probability · Elche
29.0%
Clean-sheet probability · Valencia
22.0%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Elche22.0%33.3%25.2%19.4%
Valencia29.0%35.9%22.2%12.9%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
25.2%
H/D
5.7%
H/A
1.9%
Draw
D/H
14.6%
D/D
16.6%
D/A
10.9%
Away
A/H
2.5%
A/D
5.7%
A/A
17.0%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Elche

A Valencian Community club nicknamed Los Franjiverdes for its green-striped shirts, promoted from Segunda División in 2025 and still in La Liga in 2026-27.

City
Elche, Spain
Stadium
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Founded
1923
Head coach
Martín Anselmi

Valencia

Nicknamed Los Che, Valencia is a historic La Liga club from Spain's Mediterranean coast. They finished 9th in 2025–26 and are now coached by Javier Aguirre, who replaced Carlos Corberán.

City
Valencia, Spain
Stadium
Mestalla
Founded
1919
Head coach
Javier Aguirre

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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