La Liga · Matchday 11
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Athletic Club win 49%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad win 26%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: Athletic Club 2-1 Real Sociedad. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Athletic Club" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Athletic Club | 48.6% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 9.6% | #2 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.3% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 29.7% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Athletic Club / Draw
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Real Sociedad
- 51%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Athletic Club (49%); expected goals Athletic Club 1.67 – 1.15 Real Sociedad.
- 2.82 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
- Last five: Athletic Club WLDDD (1 wins), Real Sociedad WWWWL (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Athletic Club
- 1.67
- Expected goals · Real Sociedad
- 1.15
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 37% / 41% / 22%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Athletic Club | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.0% | 7.3% | 88.7% |
| Home -2 | 11.3% | 15.1% | 73.7% |
| Home -1≈ | 26.3% | 22.3% | 51.4% |
| Home +1 | 74.4% | 15.2% | 10.4% |
| Home +2 | 89.6% | 7.2% | 3.2% |
| Home +3 | 96.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.2%
- 2:08.3%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:04.6%
- 3:15.3%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:01.9%
- 4:12.2%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.7%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.4%
- 0:06.7%
- 1:112.2%
- 2:25.5%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.1%
- 0:24.0%
- 1:26.6%
- 0:31.5%
- 1:32.5%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.0% | 53.6% | 31.3% | 15.6% |
| Under | 22.0% | 46.4% | 68.7% | 84.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.0%
- Over, even
- 20.5%
- Under, odd
- 15.2%
- Under, even
- 31.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Athletic Club
- 31.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Real Sociedad
- 18.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 18.8% | 31.4% | 26.2% | 23.5% |
| Real Sociedad | 31.6% | 36.4% | 21.0% | 11.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 29.7% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 1.7% |
| Draw | D/H 16.2% | D/D 15.2% | D/A 9.5% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 14.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Athletic Club
A Basque club known for its policy of fielding mainly Basque-born or Basque-trained players, it has never been relegated from La Liga and finished 12th in 2025–26.
- City
- Bilbao, Spain
- Stadium
- San Mamés
- Founded
- 1898
- Head coach
- Edin Terzić
Real Sociedad
A Basque club from San Sebastián known for its youth academy and possession-based football, it won the 2025–26 Copa del Rey under Pellegrino Matarazzo.
- City
- San Sebastián (Donostia), Spain
- Stadium
- Reale Arena (Anoeta)
- Founded
- 1909
- Head coach
- Pellegrino Matarazzo
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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