Premier League Β· Matchday 9
Bournemouth vs Leeds United prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Bournemouth win 46%, draw 28%, Leeds United win 26%; the final score was 2:0.
Full time: Bournemouth 2-0 Leeds United. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Bournemouth" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Bournemouth | 46.0% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:0 | 8.2% | #4 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 25.7% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 49.3% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 28.1% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Bournemouth / Draw
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Leeds United
- 54%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 51%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Bournemouth (46%); expected goals Bournemouth 1.56 β 1.14 Leeds United.
- 2.70 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 51%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (28%).
- Last five: Bournemouth WWLLD (2 wins), Leeds United DDLDW (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Bournemouth
- 1.56
- Expected goals Β· Leeds United
- 1.14
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 42% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Bournemouth | Draw | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.3% | 6.6% | 90.2% |
| Home -2 | 9.8% | 14.3% | 75.9% |
| Home -1β | 24.1% | 21.8% | 54.0% |
| Home +1 | 73.5% | 15.6% | 10.9% |
| Home +2 | 89.1% | 7.6% | 3.4% |
| Home +3 | 96.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.3%
- 2:08.2%
- 2:19.3%
- 3:04.3%
- 3:14.9%
- 3:22.8%
- 4:01.7%
- 4:11.9%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:07.9%
- 1:113.1%
- 2:25.3%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.4%
- 0:24.3%
- 1:26.8%
- 0:31.6%
- 1:32.6%
- 2:32.0%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76.4% | 50.7% | 28.6% | 13.7% |
| Under | 23.6% | 49.3% | 71.4% | 86.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 31.6%
- Over, even
- 19.0%
- Under, odd
- 15.7%
- Under, even
- 33.6%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 54.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Bournemouth
- 32.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Leeds United
- 20.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 20.9% | 32.7% | 25.6% | 20.7% |
| Leeds United | 32.1% | 36.5% | 20.7% | 10.7% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 28.1% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 1.6% |
| Draw | D/H 15.4% | D/D 16.5% | D/A 9.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.5% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 15.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Bournemouth
A south-coast club nicknamed the Cherries, Bournemouth finished sixth in 2025β26, their best-ever top-flight finish, and are playing in the Europa League for the first time in 2026β27 under Marco Rose.
- City
- Bournemouth, England
- Stadium
- Vitality Stadium
- Founded
- 1899
- Head coach
- Marco Rose
Leeds United
Leeds United are a historic Yorkshire club, nicknamed the Whites, who play at Elland Road in the Premier League.
- City
- Leeds, England
- Stadium
- Elland Road
- Founded
- 1919
- Head coach
- Daniel Farke
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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