Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 33

Corinthians vs Mirassol prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Corinthians
LDLLL
2 - 0
HT 0-0
Mirassol
DWLDW

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Corinthians win 51%, draw 27%, Mirassol win 22%; the final score was 2:0.

Full time: Corinthians 2-0 Mirassol. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Corinthians" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultCorinthians50.7%most likely
Correct score2:08.5%#3 of 31
Total goals2 goals24.7%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.543.7%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/H16.3%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Corinthians
51%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Mirassol
49%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
22%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
32%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
56%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Corinthians (51%); expected goals Corinthians 1.79 – 1.15 Mirassol.
  • 2.94 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 56%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (32%).
  • Last five: Corinthians LDLLL (0 wins), Mirassol DWLDW (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Corinthians 51%Draw 27%Mirassol 22%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Corinthians
1.79
Expected goals · Mirassol
1.15
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
39% / 40% / 21%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2CorinthiansDrawMirassol
Home -35.0%8.3%86.7%
Home -213.3%16.1%70.7%
Home -1≈29.3%21.4%49.3%
Home +177.6%13.0%9.4%
Home +290.6%6.5%2.9%
Home +397.1%2.2%0.7%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Corinthians · Home
  • 1:07.7%
  • 2:08.5%
  • 2:19.7%
  • 3:05.1%
  • 3:15.8%
  • 3:23.3%
  • 4:02.3%
  • 4:12.6%
  • 4:21.5%
  • 5:00.8%
  • 5:10.9%
  • 5:20.5%
  • Other home win1.9%
Draw
  • 0:07.1%
  • 1:112.7%
  • 2:25.6%
  • 3:31.3%
  • Other draw0.2%
Mirassol · Away
  • 0:14.2%
  • 0:23.5%
  • 1:26.2%
  • 0:31.3%
  • 1:32.4%
  • 2:32.1%
  • 0:40.4%
  • 1:40.7%
  • 2:40.6%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.6%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.1%
1
11.9%
2
24.7%
3
22.4%
4
16.5%
5
9.7%
6
4.7%
7+
3.1%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over81.0%56.3%33.9%17.5%
Under19.0%43.7%66.1%82.5%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
34.3%
Over, even
22.0%
Under, odd
11.9%
Under, even
31.8%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
58.7%
Both teams to score: No
41.3%
Clean-sheet probability · Corinthians
31.8%
Clean-sheet probability · Mirassol
16.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Corinthians16.6%29.8%26.8%26.8%
Mirassol31.8%36.4%20.9%10.9%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
31.5%
H/D
5.7%
H/A
1.6%
Draw
D/H
16.3%
D/D
15.4%
D/A
8.3%
Away
A/H
2.9%
A/D
5.7%
A/A
12.6%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Corinthians

One of Brazil's biggest and most popular clubs, based in São Paulo and nicknamed Timão, it recently won the Copa do Brasil and Supercopa do Brasil but has been struggling near the relegation zone in the 2026 Série A.

City
São Paulo, Brazil
Stadium
Neo Química Arena
Founded
1910
Head coach
Clarence Seedorf

Mirassol

A small-city club from the interior of São Paulo state, Mirassol finished fourth in the 2025 Brasileirão in their first top-flight season despite having the league's smallest budget, which earned them their first Copa Libertadores place.

City
Mirassol, Brazil
Stadium
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Founded
1925
Head coach
Rafael Guanaes

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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