Primeira Liga · Matchday 9
Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Santa Clara win 12%, draw 19%, Benfica win 69%; the final score was 1:2.
Full time: Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Benfica" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Benfica | 68.5% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:2 | 9.7% | #3 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.4% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/A | 3.2% | #8 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Benfica
- 69%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Miss
- Benfica
- 45%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 0:2 / 0:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 44%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 59%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Benfica (69%); expected goals Santa Clara 0.83 – 2.21 Benfica.
- Goals look likely: 3.04 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 0:2 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (44%).
- Last five: Santa Clara WDWWD (3 wins), Benfica WLWWW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Santa Clara
- 0.83
- Expected goals · Benfica
- 2.21
- Most likely score
- 0:2 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 13% / 37% / 49%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Santa Clara | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 99.1% |
| Home -2 | 0.9% | 2.9% | 96.2% |
| Home -1 | 3.8% | 8.6% | 87.7% |
| Home +1≈ | 31.5% | 23.4% | 45.1% |
| Home +2 | 54.9% | 20.7% | 24.5% |
| Home +3 | 75.5% | 13.4% | 11.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.6%
- 2:01.6%
- 2:13.6%
- 3:00.5%
- 3:11.0%
- 3:21.1%
- 4:00.1%
- 4:10.2%
- 4:20.2%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.0%
- 5:20.0%
- Other home win0.2%
- 0:05.1%
- 1:19.1%
- 2:24.0%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:110.2%
- 0:211.7%
- 1:29.7%
- 0:38.6%
- 1:37.1%
- 2:33.0%
- 0:44.8%
- 1:44.0%
- 2:41.6%
- 0:52.1%
- 1:51.7%
- 2:50.7%
- Other away win3.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 81.0% | 58.6% | 36.2% | 19.2% |
| Under | 19.0% | 41.4% | 63.8% | 80.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.4%
- Over, even
- 23.2%
- Under, odd
- 13.9%
- Under, even
- 27.6%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 50.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 49.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Santa Clara
- 10.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Benfica
- 43.7%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 43.7% | 36.2% | 15.0% | 5.2% |
| Benfica | 10.9% | 24.2% | 26.8% | 38.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 6.4% | H/D 3.8% | H/A 3.2% |
| Draw | D/H 5.0% | D/D 11.5% | D/A 20.9% |
| Away | A/H 0.9% | A/D 3.8% | A/A 44.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Santa Clara
Santa Clara, from Ponta Delgada in the Azores, is the only Azorean club to have played in Portugal's top flight.
- City
- Ponta Delgada, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio de São Miguel
- Founded
- 1921
- Head coach
- Petit
Benfica
Lisbon-based Portuguese giant and one of the "Big Three" in the Primeira Liga, known for its youth development and attacking football; it finished third in the league last season and is now coached by Marco Silva.
- City
- Lisbon, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio da Luz
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Marco Silva
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide → · League page: Primeira Liga →