K League 1 Β· Matchday 35
FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives FC Seoul a 49% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 27% for Ulsan HD FC; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.10 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- FC Seoul / Ulsan HD FC
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Ulsan HD FC
- 51%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 29%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Seoul, reportedly already champions, have won only one of their last five (L, D, D, W, L) and lost 0-1 at home to Incheon United last time out. Ulsan Hyundai are on a three-match unbeaten run (W, D, W) and reportedly need a win to secure second place and an ACL Elite spot. Both sides have seven days' rest, and Ulsan won the last two meetings, 1-0 and 3-1.
Our published probabilities make Seoul slight favourites: home win 49%, draw 25%, Ulsan win 26%. Expected goals are 1.80β1.29, with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 61%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 2:1 (10%) and 2:0 (7%).
Written Sat, Nov 7, 03:26 AM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour FC Seoul (49%); expected goals FC Seoul 1.81 β 1.29 Ulsan HD FC.
- Goals look likely: 3.10 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (29%).
- Last five: FC Seoul LDDWL (1 wins), Ulsan HD FC WDWLL (2 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: FC Seoul 3 wins, 1 draws, Ulsan HD FC 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 19 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· FC Seoul
- 1.81
- Expected goals Β· Ulsan HD FC
- 1.29
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 36% / 41% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Seoul | Draw | Ulsan HD FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.6% | 7.7% | 87.7% |
| Home -2 | 12.3% | 15.1% | 72.6% |
| Home -1β | 27.4% | 21.3% | 51.4% |
| Home +1 | 73.5% | 15.0% | 11.6% |
| Home +2 | 88.4% | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| Home +3 | 96.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.3%
- 2:07.4%
- 2:19.5%
- 3:04.4%
- 3:15.7%
- 3:23.7%
- 4:02.0%
- 4:12.6%
- 4:21.7%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.9%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win2.1%
- 0:05.4%
- 1:111.4%
- 2:26.1%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:14.9%
- 0:23.8%
- 1:26.8%
- 0:31.6%
- 1:32.9%
- 2:32.6%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.4% | 59.8% | 37.4% | 20.1% |
| Under | 17.6% | 40.2% | 62.6% | 79.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.9%
- Over, even
- 23.9%
- Under, odd
- 12.2%
- Under, even
- 28.0%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 61.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 38.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· FC Seoul
- 27.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Ulsan HD FC
- 16.4%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 16.4% | 29.7% | 26.8% | 27.1% |
| Ulsan HD FC | 27.5% | 35.5% | 22.9% | 14.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 28.8% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 16.6% | D/D 13.9% | D/A 10.0% |
| Away | A/H 3.2% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 14.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): FC Seoul 48.6% Β· Draw 24.8% Β· Ulsan HD FC 26.5% Β· 2.5+ 59.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 4.08 | 3.45 | 3: 1.97 / 1.90 | -0.5: 1.99 / 1.89 |
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.84 | 3.50 | 2.5: 1.51 / 2.26 | 0: 1.41 / 2.52 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.98 | 3.90 | 3.45 | 3: 1.93 / 1.83 | -0.5: 1.92 / 1.85 |
| Coolbet | 1.90 | 3.85 | 3.60 | 3: 1.90 / 1.87 | -1: 2.63 / 1.47 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.89 | 3.84 | 3.50 | 3.5: 2.40 / 1.53 | -1: 2.60 / 1.45 |
| Matchbook | 1.99 | 4.00 | 3.40 | 2.5: 1.60 / 2.42 | -0.5: 1.98 / 1.88 |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.25 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 1.91 | 3.55 | 3.40 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.24 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.74 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.53 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.25 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.68 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 3.5: 2.20 / 1.45 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.75 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.53 | β |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.75 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.53 | β |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.5: 1.53 / 2.40 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 19 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the motivational gap is the main story here: Seoul have already clinched the title and have looked flat since, taking one point from their last three, while Ulsan still need a win to secure second place and an ACL Elite spot. Ulsan have also won the last two meetings and arrive on a three-match unbeaten run. The bookmakers already reflect most of this, so the news only slightly favours the visitors relative to the consensus, and the golden-boot race between Klimala and Yago keeps a goal-friendly game likely.
- FC Seoul Β· Seoul have already clinched the K League 1 title (67 points), so there is little to play for in the table and some rotation or reduced intensity is possible. (moderate Β· news.jkn.co.kr)
- Ulsan HD FC Β· Ulsan are second on 54 points and need a win to hold second place and an AFC Champions League Elite spot. Sixth-placed Gangwon are only 6 points behind. (major Β· topstarnews.net)
- Ulsan HD FC Β· Ulsan are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (2W 1D), including a 2-1 comeback win over Gangwon on 1 Nov. They have won both recent meetings with Seoul (3-1 away, 1-0 at home) after a 1-4 loss in April. (moderate Β· m.news.nate.com)
- FC Seoul Β· Klimala (16 goals) is joint top scorer with Ulsan's Yago (16). Both have gone two league games without scoring, which adds individual incentive. (minor Β· supple.kr)
- FC Seoul Β· Seoul have lost their last match 0-1 to Incheon and drawn two of their previous three, so form has dipped since the title was secured. (minor Β· unknown)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
FC Seoul
FC Seoul is one of the best-known and most successful clubs in the K League, based in the capital and playing at Seoul World Cup Stadium, and it also competes in the AFC Champions League Elite under Kim Ki-dong.
- City
- Seoul, South Korea
- Stadium
- Seoul World Cup Stadium
- Founded
- 1983
- Head coach
- Kim Ki-dong
Ulsan HD FC
Ulsan HD (formerly Ulsan Hyundai), backed by HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, is one of the K League 1's most successful clubs and won three straight league titles from 2022 to 2024.
- City
- Ulsan, South Korea
- Stadium
- Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium
- Founded
- 1983
- Head coach
- Kim Hyun-seok
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
FC Seoul
- LIncheon United0-1 Β· 11-01
- DGangwon FC1-1 Β· 10-24
- DGimcheon Sangmu FC2-2 Β· 10-18
- WJeju SK FC2-1 Β· 10-10
- L@ Pohang Steelers1-2 Β· 09-20
Ulsan HD FC
- WGangwon FC2-1 Β· 11-01
- DPohang Steelers2-2 Β· 10-24
- WBucheon FC 19952-1 Β· 10-17
- L@ Gwangju FC3-4 Β· 10-11
- L@ FC Anyang1-2 Β· 09-19
FC Seoul 7 days rest Β· Ulsan HD FC 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-09-08Ulsan HD FC 1-0 FC SeoulK League 1
- 2026-07-26FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan HD FCK League 1
- 2026-04-15Ulsan HD FC 1-4 FC SeoulK League 1
- 2025-08-24FC Seoul 3-2 Ulsan HD FCK League 1
- 2025-07-20FC Seoul 1-0 Ulsan HD FCK League 1
- 2025-04-05Ulsan HD FC 0-0 FC SeoulK League 1
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: K League 1 β