Serie A · Matchday 10

Bologna vs Monza prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Bologna
WWLWD
2 - 1
HT 1-1
Monza
LLWLW

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Bologna win 57%, draw 24%, Monza win 18%; the final score was 2:1.

Full time: Bologna 2-1 Monza. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Bologna" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultBologna57.4%most likely
Correct score2:19.8%#4 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.2%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.551.9%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/H19.1%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Bologna
57%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Monza
43%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:0
22%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
36%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
52%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Bologna (57%); expected goals Bologna 1.82 – 0.93 Monza.
  • 2.75 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (36%).
  • Last five: Bologna WWLWD (3 wins), Monza LLWLW (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Bologna 57%Draw 24%Monza 18%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Bologna
1.82
Expected goals · Monza
0.93
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
41% / 41% / 17%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2BolognaDrawMonza
Home -36.0%9.6%84.4%
Home -215.6%17.9%66.5%
Home -1≈33.5%23.9%42.6%
Home +181.8%11.9%6.4%
Home +293.6%4.7%1.6%
Home +398.4%1.3%0.3%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Bologna · Home
  • 1:010.8%
  • 2:010.6%
  • 2:19.8%
  • 3:06.4%
  • 3:16.0%
  • 3:22.8%
  • 4:02.9%
  • 4:12.7%
  • 4:21.3%
  • 5:01.1%
  • 5:11.0%
  • 5:20.5%
  • Other home win1.7%
Draw
  • 0:07.2%
  • 1:111.6%
  • 2:24.6%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.1%
Monza · Away
  • 0:15.2%
  • 0:22.8%
  • 1:25.0%
  • 0:30.9%
  • 1:31.6%
  • 2:31.4%
  • 0:40.2%
  • 1:40.4%
  • 2:40.3%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.2%
1
16.0%
2
25.0%
3
22.2%
4
15.2%
5
8.4%
6
3.8%
7+
2.2%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over76.8%51.9%29.7%14.5%
Under23.2%48.1%70.3%85.5%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
32.2%
Over, even
19.6%
Under, odd
16.0%
Under, even
32.1%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
51.6%
Both teams to score: No
48.4%
Clean-sheet probability · Bologna
39.4%
Clean-sheet probability · Monza
16.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Bologna16.2%29.5%26.8%27.4%
Monza39.4%36.7%17.1%6.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
35.5%
H/D
4.7%
H/A
1.2%
Draw
D/H
19.1%
D/D
14.9%
D/A
7.3%
Away
A/H
2.9%
A/D
4.7%
A/A
9.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Bologna

Historic Emilia-Romagna club nicknamed the Rossoblù, seven-time Italian champions in the early and mid-20th century, who returned to the Champions League in 2024–25 after qualifying via a fifth-place Serie A finish.

City
Bologna, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Founded
1909
Head coach
Raffaele Palladino

Monza

Lombardy club nicknamed the Biancorossi, promoted back to Serie A via the 2026 Serie B play-offs and playing in the lower half of the table in 2026–27.

City
Monza, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Brianteo
Founded
1912
Head coach
Ivan Jurić

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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