J1 League Β· Matchday 14
Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Red Diamonds prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Vissel Kobe a 44% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 29% for Urawa Red Diamonds; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.79 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Vissel Kobe / Urawa Red Diamonds
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Urawa Red Diamonds
- 56%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Vissel Kobe host Urawa on J1 League matchday 14, with both sides on eight days of rest. Kobe have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, scoring nine and conceding seven. Urawa have won three and lost two, but conceded heavily in their 0-4 and 0-3 defeats. Reports say Urawa will be without suspended captain Yuta Miyamoto and that the game is being played at the National Stadium in Tokyo. The last four meetings produced one win each and two draws.
Our published probabilities give Kobe a 44% chance of winning, with the draw at 27% and Urawa at 29%. Expected goals are 1.56β1.22, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 52% and both teams scoring at 57%. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 19 bookmakers.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 03:25 AM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Vissel Kobe (44%); expected goals Vissel Kobe 1.55 β 1.23 Urawa Red Diamonds.
- 2.79 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
- Last five: Vissel Kobe WDLWL (2 wins), Urawa Red Diamonds LWWWL (3 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Vissel Kobe 1 wins, 2 draws, Urawa Red Diamonds 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 20 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Vissel Kobe
- 1.55
- Expected goals Β· Urawa Red Diamonds
- 1.23
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 32% / 45% / 24%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Vissel Kobe | Draw | Urawa Red Diamonds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.0% | 6.1% | 90.9% |
| Home -2 | 9.1% | 13.5% | 77.5% |
| Home -1β | 22.5% | 21.1% | 56.3% |
| Home +1 | 70.8% | 16.5% | 12.7% |
| Home +2 | 87.3% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| Home +3 | 95.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.5%
- 2:07.4%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:03.8%
- 3:14.7%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:01.5%
- 4:11.8%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.2%
- 0:07.2%
- 1:112.9%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.5%
- 0:24.7%
- 1:27.3%
- 0:31.9%
- 1:33.0%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.7% | 52.7% | 30.5% | 15.0% |
| Under | 22.3% | 47.3% | 69.5% | 85.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.6%
- Over, even
- 20.1%
- Under, odd
- 15.0%
- Under, even
- 32.3%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Vissel Kobe
- 29.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Urawa Red Diamonds
- 21.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 21.2% | 32.9% | 25.5% | 20.4% |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 29.1% | 35.9% | 22.2% | 12.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 24.3% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 16.6% | D/D 16.3% | D/A 11.8% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 15.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Vissel Kobe 43.6% Β· Draw 27.1% Β· Urawa Red Diamonds 29.2% Β· 2.5+ 52.7%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.59 | 3.23 | 2.75: 2.03 / 1.85 | -0.25: 1.93 / 1.94 |
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.53 | 3.33 | 2.5: 1.83 / 2.00 | 0: 1.58 / 2.41 |
| Coolbet | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.5: 1.78 / 2.05 | -1: 3.31 / 1.32 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.10 | 3.44 | 3.25 | 2.5: 1.79 / 1.95 | 0: 1.54 / 2.35 |
| Matchbook | 2.20 | 3.65 | 3.30 | 2.5: 1.82 / 2.08 | -0.25: 1.92 / 1.94 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 2.75: 1.96 / 1.80 | β |
| Betsson | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.05 | 2.5: 1.75 / 1.95 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 2.5: 1.76 / 1.92 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.05 | 2.5: 1.75 / 1.95 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.93 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.5: 1.68 / 1.83 | β |
| Tipico | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.5: 1.67 / 2.00 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.04 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 2.5: 1.76 / 1.92 | β |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.04 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 2.5: 1.76 / 1.92 | β |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.5: 1.75 / 1.95 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 20 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the headline news largely cancels out: Urawa lose captain Yuta Miyamoto to suspension, while Kobe arrive on shorter rest after an ACL Elite comeback and, more importantly, play this 'home' game at the National Stadium in Tokyo rather than Noevir Stadium. The suspension and the midweek fixture were public before prices settled, so the neutral venue is the one detail that may not be fully reflected and it slightly favours Urawa relative to the consensus. Kobe remain the more likely winners given form and the title-race motivation, but the gap is narrower than a normal home fixture would suggest.
- Urawa Red Diamonds Β· Captain and key centre-back Yuta Miyamoto is suspended after a second yellow card in the 0-4 loss at Kashiwa. (major Β· jleague.jp)
- Vissel Kobe Β· Kobe played a 3-2 comeback win over Ratchaburi in the AFC Champions League Elite on 3 Nov, and Yamakawa, Ideguchi, Osako and Muto came on as second-half substitutes. DAZN flags fitness and fatigue as a concern. That leaves about 5 days' res (moderate Β· dazn.com)
- Vissel Kobe Β· Kobe are 5th on 26 points, 4 points behind leaders FC Tokyo, and need the win to stay in the title race. (moderate Β· dazn.com)
- Urawa Red Diamonds Β· Urawa are 9th on 21 points after a 0-4 loss at Kashiwa that ended a 3-match winning run. Local media report talk of manager Cho Kiyo's dismissal. (moderate Β· football-tribe.com)
- Urawa Red Diamonds Β· Manager Cho Kiyo said a week of preparation before the Kobe game gives his squad a fresh reset after the Kashiwa defeat. (minor Β· targma.jp)
- Vissel Kobe Β· The match is played at MUFG National Stadium in Tokyo, not Kobe's Noevir Stadium, as the Rakuten Super Match sponsor day. This reduces Kobe's usual home advantage and means Kobe travel. (moderate Β· jleague.jp)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Vissel Kobe
Kobe-based J1 League club, champions in 2023 and 2024, that won the 2026 J1 100 Year Vision League under German coach Michael Skibbe.
- City
- Kobe, Japan
- Stadium
- Noevir Stadium Kobe
- Founded
- 1966
- Head coach
- Michael Skibbe
Urawa Red Diamonds
Saitama-based J1 League club with one of Japan's largest fan bases and three AFC Champions League titles (2007, 2017, 2022), now led by Cho Kwi-jae, who took over for the 2026β27 season.
- City
- Saitama, Japan
- Stadium
- Saitama Stadium 2002
- Founded
- 1950
- Head coach
- Cho Kwi-jae
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Vissel Kobe
- WNagoya Grampus3-1 Β· 10-31
- DMachida Zelvia0-0 Β· 10-24
- L@ Kawasaki Frontale1-2 Β· 10-21
- W@ Fagiano Okayama3-0 Β· 10-18
- L@ Kashiwa Reysol2-4 Β· 10-09
Urawa Red Diamonds
- L@ Kashiwa Reysol0-4 Β· 10-31
- WV-Varen Nagasaki1-0 Β· 10-25
- WJEF United Chiba3-2 Β· 10-21
- W@ Mito HollyHock1-0 Β· 10-17
- L@ FC Tokyo0-3 Β· 10-10
Vissel Kobe 8 days rest Β· Urawa Red Diamonds 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2025-10-04Urawa Red Diamonds 1-0 Vissel KobeJ1 League
- 2025-02-15Vissel Kobe 0-0 Urawa Red DiamondsJ1 League
- 2024-09-28Vissel Kobe 1-0 Urawa Red DiamondsJ1 League
- 2024-06-01Urawa Red Diamonds 1-1 Vissel KobeJ1 League
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: J1 League β