Serie A Β· Matchday 11
Napoli vs Lazio prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Napoli a 41% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 32% for Lazio; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.89 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Napoli / Lazio
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Lazio
- 59%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 25%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 55%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Napoli host Lazio on Serie A Matchday 11 after a mixed run: two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five, including a 3-3 home draw with Roma. Lazio have won all of their last five, among them 6-2 at Sassuolo and 3-0 at Juventus. Both sides have had seven days' rest. The data provider lists Buongiorno out for Napoli and Patric for Lazio. Web reports mention further absences on both sides, such as Di Lorenzo and Lobotka for Napoli and Zaccagni for Lazio, but that information may be incomplete.
The market consensus makes Napoli slight favourites: 42% home win, 26% draw, 32% Lazio win. Expected goals are 1.53β1.32, with 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score. The most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:0 (8%). Much of the team news was public days ago, so the published probabilities probably already reflect it.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 10:22 AM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Napoli 41%, draw 27%, Lazio 32% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.89 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 55%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (25%).
- Last five: Napoli LWDLW (2 wins), Lazio WWWWW (5 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Napoli 1 wins, 2 draws, Lazio 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Napoli
- 1.55
- Expected goals Β· Lazio
- 1.34
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 33% / 41% / 27%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Napoli | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.8% | 5.7% | 91.6% |
| Home -2 | 8.4% | 12.7% | 78.9% |
| Home -1β | 21.1% | 20.3% | 58.6% |
| Home +1 | 67.9% | 17.4% | 14.6% |
| Home +2 | 85.4% | 9.5% | 5.1% |
| Home +3 | 94.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.6%
- 2:06.7%
- 2:18.9%
- 3:03.4%
- 3:14.6%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:01.3%
- 4:11.8%
- 4:21.2%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.3%
- 0:06.5%
- 1:112.5%
- 2:26.0%
- 3:31.4%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.5%
- 0:25.0%
- 1:27.7%
- 0:32.2%
- 1:33.5%
- 2:32.7%
- 0:40.7%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.4% | 55.2% | 32.9% | 16.7% |
| Under | 20.6% | 44.8% | 67.1% | 83.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.8%
- Over, even
- 21.4%
- Under, odd
- 14.1%
- Under, even
- 30.7%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Napoli
- 26.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Lazio
- 21.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 21.2% | 32.9% | 25.5% | 20.4% |
| Lazio | 26.1% | 35.1% | 23.5% | 15.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 24.8% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 14.0% | D/D 15.2% | D/A 11.3% |
| Away | A/H 2.6% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 18.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Napoli 41.3% Β· Draw 26.6% Β· Lazio 32.0% Β· 2.5+ 55.2%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.66 | 3.01 | 2.75: 1.89 / 2.00 | -0.25: 2.05 / 1.86 |
| 1xBet | 2.33 | 3.73 | 3.15 | 2.5: 1.81 / 2.16 | 0: 1.72 / 2.30 |
| BetAnything | 2.33 | 3.61 | 2.99 | 2.75: 1.86 / 1.96 | -0.25: 2.02 / 1.82 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.36 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 2.5: 1.74 / 2.05 | 0: 1.71 / 2.16 |
| Coolbet | 2.35 | 3.65 | 3.00 | 3: 2.20 / 1.74 | -1: 3.65 / 1.32 |
| GTbets | 2.30 | 3.68 | 3.04 | 2.5: 1.76 / 2.03 | -0.5: 2.26 / 1.62 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.26 | 3.62 | 3.06 | 2.5: 1.75 / 2.09 | -1: 3.40 / 1.32 |
| Betsson | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.92 | 2.5: 1.68 / 2.21 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 2.37 | 3.50 | 2.95 | 2.5: 1.63 / 2.10 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.17 | 3.45 | 2.95 | 2.5: 1.75 / 2.08 | β |
| Matchbook | 2.42 | 3.65 | 3.10 | β | -0.25: 2.04 / 1.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.35 | 3.45 | 2.90 | 2.5: 1.65 / 2.18 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 2.14 | 3.40 | 2.88 | 2.5: 1.64 / 1.94 | β |
| Tipico | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.5: 1.62 / 2.25 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 24 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Team news & line-ups
Napoli
Injuries & suspensions
- A. Buongiorno Β· Jumpers Knee
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Lazio
Injuries & suspensions
- Patric Β· Sprained Ankle
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that this is a tighter contest than Napoli's home status suggests: Allegri is without Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Lobotka, Neres and Spinazzola, Marianucci is suspended, and the squad is coming off a midweek defeat in Porto, while Lazio arrive fresh on a six-match winning run. The main caveat for the visitors is the loss of captain Zaccagni, which blunts their left side. Because the bulk of this news broke several days ago it is largely already in the market, so the picture only tilts slightly further towards Lazio and towards an open, goal-filled game.
- Napoli Β· Napoli have a long absence list: Di Lorenzo (adductor strain, about 3 weeks), Buongiorno, Lobotka, Neres, Alisson Santos, Spinazzola, Badiashile and Favasuli are all reported out. (major Β· news.bet365.it)
- Napoli Β· Marianucci is suspended after his booking against Juventus, which leaves Napoli very short in defence. Milinkovic-Savic is listed as a doubt. (major Β· news.bet365.it)
- Napoli Β· Olivera is reported as injured by most outlets, though one says he is back and could play at left wing-back. Lang is the alternative. (moderate Β· ilmionapoli.it)
- Napoli Β· Napoli are 8th, 14 points behind leaders Lazio. They have lost two in a row, including the 2-0 defeat at Juventus, and lost at Porto in the Champions League in midweek. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Napoli Β· Allegri is expected to use a 3-5-1-1 or 3-5-2 with De Bruyne behind or alongside HΓΈjlund. Gilmour, Anguissa and McTominay are likely in midfield. (moderate Β· sosfanta.com)
- Lazio Β· Lazio captain Zaccagni is out for at least a month with a muscle tear. Noslin moves to the left of the attack and Pinamonti is expected to start centrally. (major Β· calcionapoli24.it)
- Lazio Β· Nuno Tavares is a doubt with fatigue or a new knock. Pedraza is expected to replace him at left-back if he misses out. (moderate Β· calcionapoli24.it)
- Lazio Β· Gudmundsson is unavailable until after the international break. Marusic and Rovella are reported back for Gattuso. Our provider lists Patric (ankle) as out. (minor Β· calcionapoli24.it)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Napoli
Southern Italy's biggest club, four-time Serie A champions (most recently 2024β25) and 2025β26 runners-up, known for its Maradona legacy and passionate fan base.
- City
- Naples, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
- Founded
- 1926
- Head coach
- Massimiliano Allegri
Lazio
Rome-based club known as the Biancocelesti, who won Serie A titles in 1973β74 and 2000.
- City
- Rome, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Olimpico
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Gennaro Gattuso
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Napoli
- L@ Juventus0-2 Β· 11-01
- W@ Monza4-1 Β· 10-28
- DRoma3-3 Β· 10-24
- L@ Venezia0-1 Β· 10-17
- WFrosinone3-0 Β· 10-10
Lazio
- WCagliari2-1 Β· 11-01
- W@ Sassuolo6-2 Β· 10-27
- WParma2-1 Β· 10-24
- W@ Juventus3-0 Β· 10-18
- WMonza3-1 Β· 10-11
Napoli 7 days rest Β· Lazio 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-18Napoli 0-2 LazioSerie A
- 2026-01-04Lazio 0-2 NapoliSerie A
- 2025-02-15Lazio 2-2 NapoliSerie A
- 2024-12-08Napoli 0-1 LazioSerie A
- 2024-01-28Lazio 0-0 NapoliSerie A
- 2023-09-02Napoli 1-2 LazioSerie A
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Serie A β