J1 League Β· Matchday 14
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Machida Zelvia a 33% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 39% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.76 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Machida Zelvia / Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- Machida Zelvia
- 61%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Machida Zelvia host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in a J1 League match with title-race implications. Machida have won three and drawn two of their last five, scoring 11 and conceding none, though the latest two were 0-0 draws against Gamba Osaka and Vissel Kobe. Hiroshima have won four of five, including 3-0 and 4-0 results, with one 0-4 loss at V-Varen Nagasaki. Rest is 7 days for Machida and 8 for Hiroshima, and Hiroshima won all four recent meetings.
The published probabilities are 33% for a Machida win, 28% for a draw and 39% for a Hiroshima win, a slight lean to the visitors. Expected goals are 1.31β1.45. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 1:2 (9%) and 0:1 (8%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 52% and both teams scoring at 57%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 03:24 AM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Machida Zelvia 33%, draw 28%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 39% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.76 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (22%).
- Last five: Machida Zelvia DDWWW (3 wins), Sanfrecce Hiroshima WWLWW (4 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Machida Zelvia 0 wins, 0 draws, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 20 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Machida Zelvia
- 1.31
- Expected goals Β· Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 1.45
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 26% / 45% / 29%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.5% | 3.7% | 94.8% |
| Home -2 | 5.2% | 9.8% | 85.0% |
| Home -1 | 15.0% | 17.9% | 67.2% |
| Home +1β | 60.6% | 20.0% | 19.4% |
| Home +2 | 80.6% | 12.0% | 7.4% |
| Home +3 | 92.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:07.1%
- 2:05.4%
- 2:17.9%
- 3:02.4%
- 3:13.4%
- 3:22.5%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.1%
- 4:20.8%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.8%
- 0:07.5%
- 1:113.2%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.0%
- 0:26.7%
- 1:28.7%
- 0:33.2%
- 1:34.2%
- 2:32.8%
- 0:41.2%
- 1:41.5%
- 2:41.0%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.4% | 52.1% | 29.9% | 14.6% |
| Under | 22.6% | 47.9% | 70.1% | 85.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.3%
- Over, even
- 19.8%
- Under, odd
- 15.1%
- Under, even
- 32.8%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Machida Zelvia
- 23.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 27.0%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 27.0% | 35.4% | 23.1% | 14.5% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 23.4% | 34.0% | 24.7% | 17.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 17.5% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 13.1% | D/D 16.7% | D/A 15.3% |
| Away | A/H 2.2% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 21.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Machida Zelvia 32.9% Β· Draw 27.8% Β· Sanfrecce Hiroshima 39.4% Β· 2.5+ 52.1%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.96 | 3.51 | 2.42 | 2.5: 1.86 / 2.01 | +0.25: 1.81 / 2.09 |
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.47 | 2.36 | 2.5: 1.83 / 2.00 | 0: 2.16 / 1.71 |
| Coolbet | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 2.5: 1.82 / 2.00 | +1: 1.25 / 3.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.90 | 3.38 | 2.30 | 2.5: 1.79 / 1.95 | 0: 2.10 / 1.67 |
| Matchbook | 2.98 | 3.50 | 2.44 | 2.5: 1.87 / 2.02 | +0.25: 1.80 / 2.08 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.96 | 3.40 | 2.42 | 2.5: 1.81 / 1.95 | β |
| Betsson | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 2.5: 1.80 / 1.90 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.50 | 2.5: 1.76 / 1.93 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 2.5: 1.80 / 1.90 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 2.50 | 3.15 | 2.38 | 2.5: 1.68 / 1.83 | β |
| Tipico | 2.85 | 3.10 | 2.35 | 2.5: 1.70 / 1.97 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.48 | 2.5: 1.76 / 1.93 | β |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.48 | 2.5: 1.76 / 1.93 | β |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 2.5: 1.80 / 1.91 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 20 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that this title-race meeting is close to a coin flip with a slight edge to Hiroshima, whose recent 3-0 and 4-0 wins and expected unchanged XI point to a settled side. Machida are rested and dangerous at home, but their back-to-back 0-0 draws suggest the game may be tighter than the goal-fest form lines imply. The team news is general and offers no unpriced surprises, so the market picture largely stands.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima Β· Hiroshima finished a run of eight matches in late October and now have a six-day gap. The club's own preview says it is unclear which injured players will return and how fit the others are. (moderate Β· seto.way-nifty.com)
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima Β· The Sanfrecce Diary expects the same starting XI as in the 3-0 win at Mito, with Osako in goal, a back three of Nakano, Araki and Kim, and Kawabe and Nakashima in midfield. (minor Β· seto.way-nifty.com)
- Machida Zelvia Β· The Sanfrecce Diary says Machida are one point ahead of Hiroshima and want a win to retake first place. It also says Machida played a run of home games and rested key players, so fatigue should be limited. (moderate Β· seto.way-nifty.com)
- Machida Zelvia Β· Machida have been drawing recently, with 0-0 results against Gamba Osaka and Vissel Kobe. Before that they won 5-0 at Shimizu and 3-0 at home to Avispa Fukuoka. (minor Β· fotmob.com)
- Machida Zelvia Β· A French preview lists Tani, Ogawa and Shirasaki as likely Machida starters and Suzuki, Matsumoto and Asano for Hiroshima. It does not confirm injuries or suspensions. (minor Β· mediapronos.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Machida Zelvia
A Tokyo-area club that reached J1 in 2024 and finished third in its debut top-flight season, known for an intense, physical and well-organised style under Go Kuroda.
- City
- Machida, Tokyo, Japan
- Stadium
- Machida GION Stadium
- Founded
- 1988
- Head coach
- Go Kuroda
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Hiroshima-based J1 League club, a multiple-time Japanese champion that grew out of the Mazda works team and is known for its youth development and organised, possession-based football; it is in the upper part of the 2026 J1 table.
- City
- Hiroshima, Japan
- Stadium
- Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
- Founded
- 1938
- Head coach
- Bartosch Gaul
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Machida Zelvia
- DGamba Osaka0-0 Β· 11-01
- D@ Vissel Kobe0-0 Β· 10-24
- W@ Shimizu S-Pulse5-0 Β· 10-21
- WAvispa Fukuoka3-0 Β· 10-18
- W@ Kyoto Sanga1-0 Β· 10-10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- W@ Mito HollyHock3-0 Β· 10-31
- WShimizu S-Pulse4-0 Β· 10-24
- L@ V-Varen Nagasaki0-4 Β· 10-21
- WKyoto Sanga3-0 Β· 10-17
- W@ Tokyo Verdy2-0 Β· 10-11
Machida Zelvia 7 days rest Β· Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2025-10-04Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Machida ZelviaJ1 League
- 2025-02-16Machida Zelvia 1-2 Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
- 2024-09-28Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Machida ZelviaJ1 League
- 2024-04-03Machida Zelvia 1-2 Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: J1 League β