Serie A · Matchday 11
Genoa vs AC Milan prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Genoa a 21% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 52% for AC Milan; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.51 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- AC Milan
- 52%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Genoa
- 48%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 0:1
- 25%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 32%
- Over / under 2.5
- Under
- 54%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Genoa come in with four wins from their last five, including 2-0 against Juventus and 2-1 at Lecce, with the only defeat 0-2 at Roma. AC Milan have won three, drawn one and lost one, beating Inter 3-1 but losing 2-4 to Bologna. Genoa have had seven days of rest to Milan's eight. L. Venturino is the only absentee listed, and none is listed for Milan. Milan won two and drew two of the last four meetings, including 2-1 wins at Genoa in both of the last two visits.
The market consensus makes Milan the favourites at 52%, with the draw at 27% and a Genoa win at 21%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 0:1 (12%) and 0:2 (10%). Expected goals are 0.92–1.59, with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 49%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 12:28 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour AC Milan (52%); expected goals Genoa 0.92 – 1.59 AC Milan.
- 2.51 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 46%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (32%).
- Last five: Genoa WWWLW (4 wins), AC Milan WLWWD (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Genoa 0 wins, 3 draws, AC Milan 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Genoa
- 0.92
- Expected goals · AC Milan
- 1.59
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 19% / 43% / 38%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Genoa | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 98.1% |
| Home -2 | 1.9% | 5.5% | 92.6% |
| Home -1 | 7.4% | 13.6% | 79.1% |
| Home +1≈ | 47.9% | 24.1% | 28.0% |
| Home +2 | 72.0% | 16.3% | 11.8% |
| Home +3 | 88.2% | 7.7% | 4.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.6%
- 2:03.4%
- 2:15.5%
- 3:01.1%
- 3:11.7%
- 3:21.3%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.4%
- 4:20.3%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.2%
- 0:09.1%
- 1:112.8%
- 2:24.3%
- 3:30.7%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:112.0%
- 0:210.3%
- 1:29.4%
- 0:35.4%
- 1:35.0%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:42.2%
- 1:42.0%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.7%
- 1:50.6%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72.3% | 45.8% | 24.4% | 11.0% |
| Under | 27.7% | 54.2% | 75.6% | 89.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 29.2%
- Over, even
- 16.6%
- Under, odd
- 18.6%
- Under, even
- 35.6%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 48.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 51.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Genoa
- 20.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · AC Milan
- 39.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 39.9% | 36.7% | 16.9% | 6.6% |
| AC Milan | 20.4% | 32.5% | 25.8% | 21.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 11.4% | H/D 4.9% | H/A 2.4% |
| Draw | D/H 8.3% | D/D 17.2% | D/A 17.8% |
| Away | A/H 1.2% | A/D 4.9% | A/A 31.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Genoa 20.9% · Draw 27.0% · AC Milan 52.1% · 2.5+ 45.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 4.80 | 3.56 | 1.84 | 2.25: 1.90 / 1.99 | +0.5: 2.07 / 1.84 |
| 1xBet | 4.83 | 3.73 | 1.85 | 2.5: 2.16 / 1.81 | 0: 3.31 / 1.31 |
| BetAnything | 4.48 | 3.59 | 1.85 | 2.25: 1.85 / 1.97 | +0.5: 1.97 / 1.85 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.79 | 3.51 | 1.85 | 2.5: 2.11 / 1.72 | +0.5: 1.99 / 1.83 |
| Coolbet | 4.75 | 3.55 | 1.86 | 2.5: 2.14 / 1.78 | +1: 1.55 / 2.61 |
| GTbets | 4.58 | 3.56 | 1.81 | 2.5: 2.08 / 1.72 | +0.5: 1.99 / 1.79 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.70 | 3.62 | 1.80 | 2.5: 2.09 / 1.75 | +1: 1.54 / 2.48 |
| Matchbook | 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.88 | 2.5: 2.18 / 1.80 | +0.5: 2.08 / 1.86 |
| Betsson | 4.55 | 3.50 | 1.82 | 2.5: 2.13 / 1.73 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.86 | 2.5: 2.01 / 1.69 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.20 | 3.45 | 1.78 | 2.5: 2.04 / 1.78 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 4.50 | 3.45 | 1.82 | 2.5: 2.10 / 1.70 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.75 | 2.5: 1.91 / 1.67 | – |
| Tipico | 4.80 | 3.50 | 1.77 | 2.5: 2.00 / 1.77 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 24 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Team news & line-ups
Genoa
Injuries & suspensions
- L. Venturino · Jumpers Knee
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
AC Milan
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the bookmaker consensus is broadly right to make Milan clear favourites: their injury list is long but well known, and the key starters rested in Thursday's Europa League defeat return alongside Maignan. The one detail worth a slight shade toward Genoa is the schedule asymmetry — Genoa had a free week while Milan travel after a demoralising midweek loss — combined with Genoa's unusually strong home form. A moderately open game is plausible given Milan's leaky patched-up defence, though Genoa's matches tend to stay tight.
- AC Milan · Milan are without Gabbia, Tomori, Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek and Chukwueze (hip surgery). P. Terracciano is also out or doubtful, depending on the source. (moderate · dazn.com)
- AC Milan · Milan lost 0-2 at home to Ferencváros in the Europa League on Thursday. Amorim criticised his players' attitude and is expected to bring back starters Modrić, Pulisic, Moreira, Pavlović, Gila and Maignan. (moderate · bet365.it)
- AC Milan · Maignan returns in goal after serving a European suspension. (minor · radiorossonera.it)
- Genoa · Genoa have no major absences among their expected starters. Venturino and Havel are listed as out or doubtful, and Nuredini needs checking. Østigård is one booking from a suspension. (minor · dazn.com)
- Genoa · Genoa are on a three-match league winning streak, including a 2-0 win over Juventus, and sit 11th on 13 points. They have had no midweek game and face Milan with momentum. (minor · squawka.com)
- AC Milan · Milan are fifth on 21 points and unbeaten in five league away games. They beat Inter 3-1 on 31 October but have a heavy midweek European defeat to bounce back from. (minor · bet-experts.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Genoa
Italy's oldest existing football club, nicknamed Il Grifone, nine-time Italian champion (last in 1923–24) and a long-standing Serie A side that shares the Luigi Ferraris stadium with Sampdoria.
- City
- Genoa, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Luigi Ferraris
- Founded
- 1893
- Head coach
- Daniele De Rossi
AC Milan
One of Italy's most storied clubs, the Rossoneri are seven-time European champions and share San Siro with Inter, with a long record of success in Serie A.
- City
- Milan, Italy
- Stadium
- San Siro (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza)
- Founded
- 1899
- Head coach
- Ruben Amorim
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Genoa
- W@ Lecce2-1 · 11-01
- WJuventus2-0 · 10-28
- WVenezia1-0 · 10-25
- L@ Roma0-2 · 10-17
- WFiorentina2-1 · 10-10
AC Milan
- WInter3-1 · 10-31
- LBologna2-4 · 10-28
- W@ Udinese2-0 · 10-25
- WAtalanta3-2 · 10-18
- D@ Sassuolo1-1 · 10-11
Genoa 7 days rest · AC Milan 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-17Genoa 1-2 AC MilanSerie A
- 2026-01-08AC Milan 1-1 GenoaSerie A
- 2025-05-05Genoa 1-2 AC MilanSerie A
- 2024-12-15AC Milan 0-0 GenoaSerie A
- 2024-05-05AC Milan 3-3 GenoaSerie A
- 2023-10-07Genoa 0-1 AC MilanSerie A
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