Serie A Β· Matchday 11
Fiorentina vs Juventus prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Fiorentina a 28% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 45% for Juventus; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.82 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Fiorentina / Juventus
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- Fiorentina
- 55%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Fiorentina host Juventus in Serie A Matchday 11 after a difficult run: one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five, with 9 goals scored and 11 conceded. Juventus have won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring 5 and conceding 6. The hosts have had six days of rest, the visitors seven. R. Sottil is listed as absent for Fiorentina, while none is listed for Juventus. Fiorentina are unbeaten in the last four meetings (two wins, two draws), including a 2-0 win at Juventus in May.
The published probabilities make Juventus the favourite at 46%, with a Fiorentina win at 27% and a draw also at 27%. Expected goals are 1.21β1.62. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 1:2 (9%) and 0:1 (8%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 54% and both teams scoring at 57%. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 24 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:31 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Juventus (45%); expected goals Fiorentina 1.21 β 1.61 Juventus.
- 2.82 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (28%).
- Last five: Fiorentina WDLLL (1 wins), Juventus WLWLD (2 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Fiorentina 2 wins, 2 draws, Juventus 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Fiorentina
- 1.21
- Expected goals Β· Juventus
- 1.61
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 24% / 41% / 35%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Fiorentina | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 96.2% |
| Home -2 | 3.8% | 8.0% | 88.2% |
| Home -1 | 11.8% | 15.7% | 72.4% |
| Home +1β | 54.6% | 21.3% | 24.1% |
| Home +2 | 75.9% | 14.1% | 10.0% |
| Home +3 | 90.0% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.0%
- 2:04.4%
- 2:17.0%
- 3:01.8%
- 3:12.8%
- 3:22.3%
- 4:00.5%
- 4:10.9%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:07.1%
- 1:112.8%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.4%
- 0:27.7%
- 1:29.3%
- 0:34.1%
- 1:35.0%
- 2:33.0%
- 0:41.7%
- 1:42.0%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.5%
- 1:50.7%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.5% | 53.6% | 31.3% | 15.6% |
| Under | 21.5% | 46.4% | 68.7% | 84.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.1%
- Over, even
- 20.6%
- Under, odd
- 14.3%
- Under, even
- 32.0%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.6%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Fiorentina
- 20.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Juventus
- 29.7%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 29.7% | 36.1% | 21.9% | 12.3% |
| Juventus | 20.0% | 32.2% | 25.9% | 21.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 15.7% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 10.0% | D/D 15.8% | D/A 15.2% |
| Away | A/H 1.8% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 27.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Fiorentina 27.6% Β· Draw 27.0% Β· Juventus 45.4% Β· 2.5+ 53.6%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.50 | 3.57 | 2.15 | 2.75: 2.04 / 1.85 | +0.5: 1.78 / 2.16 |
| 1xBet | 3.71 | 3.69 | 2.10 | 2.5: 1.84 / 2.11 | 0: 2.71 / 1.55 |
| BetAnything | 3.40 | 3.54 | 2.16 | 2.75: 1.98 / 1.85 | +0.25: 1.94 / 1.88 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.51 | 3.52 | 2.15 | 2.5: 1.80 / 1.98 | +0.5: 1.71 / 2.15 |
| Coolbet | 3.53 | 3.55 | 2.15 | 2.5: 1.79 / 2.12 | +1: 1.40 / 3.15 |
| GTbets | 3.59 | 3.70 | 2.05 | 2.5: 1.74 / 2.06 | +0.5: 1.72 / 2.09 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.65 | 3.64 | 2.07 | 2.5: 1.79 / 2.05 | +1: 1.40 / 2.96 |
| Matchbook | 3.55 | 3.60 | 2.22 | 2.5: 1.82 / 2.12 | +0.25: 2.02 / 1.86 |
| Betsson | 3.40 | 3.45 | 2.15 | 2.5: 1.78 / 2.06 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.18 | 2.5: 1.73 / 1.96 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.95 | 2.5: 1.77 / 2.05 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.12 | 2.5: 1.75 / 2.02 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 3.40 | 3.35 | 1.93 | 2.5: 1.66 / 1.92 | β |
| Tipico | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 2.5: 1.72 / 2.05 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 24 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Team news & line-ups
Fiorentina
Injuries & suspensions
- R. Sottil Β· Back Injury
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Juventus
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Club profiles
Fiorentina
Fiorentina, known as La Viola for their purple kits, are a Florence club with two Serie A titles (1955β56 and 1968β69). They had a very poor start to 2025β26 but climbed out of the relegation zone, and Paolo Vanoli returned as head coach in September 2026.
- City
- Florence, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Artemio Franchi
- Founded
- 1926
- Head coach
- Paolo Vanoli
Juventus
Turin's "Bianconeri" are Italy's most decorated club, with a record 36 Serie A titles, and compete in Serie A and in European competitions.
- City
- Turin, Italy
- Stadium
- Allianz Stadium
- Founded
- 1897
- Head coach
- Luciano Spalletti
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Fiorentina
- W@ Sassuolo4-2 Β· 11-02
- DAtalanta2-2 Β· 10-29
- L@ Inter1-2 Β· 10-25
- LComo1-3 Β· 10-18
- L@ Genoa1-2 Β· 10-10
Juventus
- WNapoli2-0 Β· 11-01
- L@ Genoa0-2 Β· 10-28
- W@ Lecce2-0 Β· 10-25
- LLazio0-3 Β· 10-18
- D@ Cagliari1-1 Β· 10-11
Fiorentina 6 days rest Β· Juventus 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-17Juventus 0-2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2025-11-22Fiorentina 1-1 JuventusSerie A
- 2025-03-16Fiorentina 3-0 JuventusSerie A
- 2024-12-29Juventus 2-2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2024-04-07Juventus 1-0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2023-11-05Fiorentina 0-1 JuventusSerie A
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Serie A β