J1 League Β· Matchday 14
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Shimizu S-Pulse win 38%, draw 30%, Tokyo Verdy win 31%; the final score was 0:1.
Full time: Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 Tokyo Verdy. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Shimizu S-Pulse" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Tokyo Verdy | 31.2% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:1 | 10.0% | #4 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 21.5% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.2% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/A | 13.6% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Shimizu S-Pulse / Tokyo Verdy
- 70%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Tokyo Verdy
- 62%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 26%
- Total goalsHit
- 1 / 2 goals
- 49%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- D/D
- 20%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 60%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Shimizu S Pulse host Tokyo Verdy in Round 14 of the J1 League after three straight scoreless defeats (0-2, 0-4 and 0-5), and reports say they are rebuilding their defence. Verdy have won their last two, 2-1 away to V-Varen Nagasaki and 3-1 at home to Avispa Fukuoka, under new coach Naoki Soma. Shimizu have 7 days of rest against Verdy's 6, and they won three of the last four meetings, the other being a 1-1 draw.
The published probabilities give Shimizu a slight edge: home win 39%, draw 30%, Verdy win 31%. Expected goals are 1.22β1.06, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (14%), 1:0 (11%) and 0:0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 21 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:24 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Shimizu S-Pulse 38%, draw 30%, Tokyo Verdy 31% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- A tight game is the base case: 2.28 goals expected, 60% for under 2.5.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is D/D (20%).
- Last five: Shimizu S-Pulse LLLDW (1 wins), Tokyo Verdy WWDLL (2 wins).
- A 30% draw probability is on the high side β the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Shimizu S-Pulse
- 1.21
- Expected goals Β· Tokyo Verdy
- 1.07
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 27% / 50% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Shimizu S-Pulse | Draw | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.5% | 4.2% | 94.3% |
| Home -2 | 5.7% | 11.3% | 83.0% |
| Home -1β | 17.0% | 21.4% | 61.5% |
| Home +1 | 68.8% | 18.7% | 12.5% |
| Home +2 | 87.5% | 8.8% | 3.7% |
| Home +3 | 96.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:011.5%
- 2:07.5%
- 2:18.0%
- 3:03.0%
- 3:13.2%
- 3:21.7%
- 4:00.9%
- 4:11.0%
- 4:20.5%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.4%
- 0:011.2%
- 1:114.2%
- 2:24.3%
- 3:30.6%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:110.0%
- 0:25.8%
- 1:27.1%
- 0:32.1%
- 1:32.5%
- 2:31.5%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67.3% | 39.8% | 19.6% | 8.1% |
| Under | 32.7% | 60.2% | 80.4% | 91.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 26.1%
- Over, even
- 13.7%
- Under, odd
- 21.5%
- Under, even
- 38.7%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 47.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 53.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Shimizu S-Pulse
- 34.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Tokyo Verdy
- 29.8%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 29.8% | 36.1% | 21.9% | 12.3% |
| Tokyo Verdy | 34.5% | 36.7% | 19.6% | 9.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 20.2% | H/D 5.0% | H/A 1.7% |
| Draw | D/H 16.3% | D/D 20.4% | D/A 13.6% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.0% | A/A 15.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Shimizu enter on three straight scoreless defeats (0-5, 0-4, 0-2) and are openly rebuilding their defence, while Tokyo Verdy have won two in a row under new boss Naoki Soma. None of the collected news is specific enough to move materially away from the bookmaker consensus, so we keep a slight home edge in a genuinely open match, with a marginal lean to the visitors given Shimizu's defensive collapse. Goals expectation stays modest, around 40% for over 2.5.
- Tokyo Verdy Β· Tokyo Verdy are under new manager Naoki Soma, about a month into his tenure, and are chasing their first three-match winning streak of the season. (moderate Β· note.com)
- Tokyo Verdy Β· Verdy have won two straight league games, which reportedly lifted them out of the relegation zone, and this is their last match before the November international break. (moderate Β· note.com)
- Tokyo Verdy Β· Verdy's midfield selection is the main question: the preview points to possible U-21 players being picked, and Koki Morita has been used in midfield. (minor Β· targma.jp)
- Shimizu S-Pulse Β· Shimizu have lost three straight league games without scoring (0-5, 0-4, 0-2) and are reportedly trying to rebuild their defence. They sit 13th with 4W 2D 6L. (moderate Β· jleague.jp)
- Shimizu S-Pulse Β· Shimizu's striker Oh Se-hun (South Korea international) is the main aerial threat. Verdy's players say Shimizu go long to him. (minor Β· targma.jp)
- Shimizu S-Pulse Β· I found no confirmed injury or suspension list for either side for this match. The latest Shimizu condition tracker I found is dated 19 September and is not reliable for this fixture. (minor Β· s-pulse-press.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Shimizu S-Pulse
An orange-clad Shizuoka club and one of the original J.League members, competing in J1 League and known for a possession-minded, attacking approach under Takayuki Yoshida.
- City
- Shizuoka, Japan
- Stadium
- IAI Stadium Nihondaira
- Founded
- 1991
- Head coach
- Takayuki Yoshida
Tokyo Verdy
One of the founding clubs of Japan's professional league, Tokyo Verdy won the J.League's first two titles and now plays in J1 after years in the second division, with a technical, possession-minded tradition.
- City
- ChΕfu, Tokyo, Japan
- Stadium
- Ajinomoto Stadium
- Founded
- 1969
- Head coach
- Naoki Soma
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: J1 League β