Eredivisie · Matchday 12
Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Excelsior a 34% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 40% for Go Ahead Eagles; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 3.05 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Excelsior / Go Ahead Eagles
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Excelsior
- 60%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 59%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Excelsior host Go Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie Round 12 after a poor run: four defeats and a draw in their last five, including a 0-9 home loss to FC Twente, with three goals scored and 21 conceded. Reports say striker Nesto Groen is suspended. Go Ahead have one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five, including a 0-4 loss at Cambuur, but reportedly have a near-full squad. Rest is six days for the hosts and seven for the visitors. The Eagles won three of the last four meetings.
The published probabilities lean slightly towards the visitors: Go Ahead Eagles 40%, draw 26%, Excelsior 34%. Expected goals are 1.54–1.67, with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 65%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 1:2 (9%) and 2:1 (8%). The figures blend our model with the consensus of 22 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:05 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Excelsior 34%, draw 26%, Go Ahead Eagles 40% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.05 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (24%).
- Last five: Excelsior LLLLD (0 wins), Go Ahead Eagles LWLDD (1 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Excelsior 0 wins, 1 draws, Go Ahead Eagles 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Excelsior
- 1.46
- Expected goals · Go Ahead Eagles
- 1.59
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 29% / 39% / 32%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Excelsior | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.9% | 4.3% | 93.8% |
| Home -2 | 6.2% | 10.3% | 83.5% |
| Home -1 | 16.5% | 17.5% | 66.0% |
| Home +1≈ | 60.4% | 19.2% | 20.4% |
| Home +2 | 79.6% | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Home +3 | 91.8% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:05.7%
- 2:05.0%
- 2:18.0%
- 3:02.5%
- 3:13.9%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:00.9%
- 4:11.4%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.2%
- 0:05.9%
- 1:112.2%
- 2:26.4%
- 3:31.7%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:16.3%
- 0:26.0%
- 1:28.7%
- 0:33.2%
- 1:34.6%
- 2:33.4%
- 0:41.3%
- 1:41.8%
- 2:41.3%
- 0:50.4%
- 1:50.6%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.1% | 58.9% | 36.5% | 19.4% |
| Under | 17.9% | 41.1% | 63.5% | 80.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.5%
- Over, even
- 23.4%
- Under, odd
- 12.0%
- Under, even
- 29.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 37.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Excelsior
- 20.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Go Ahead Eagles
- 23.2%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 23.2% | 33.9% | 24.8% | 18.2% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 20.4% | 32.4% | 25.8% | 21.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 20.1% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 11.5% | D/D 14.6% | D/A 13.0% |
| Away | A/H 2.4% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 23.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Excelsior 34.0% · Draw 26.4% · Go Ahead Eagles 39.6% · 2.5+ 58.9%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.88 | 3.66 | 2.44 | 3: 2.04 / 1.86 | +0.25: 1.81 / 2.12 |
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.67 | 2.42 | 2.5: 1.61 / 2.38 | 0: 2.08 / 1.78 |
| BetAnything | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.44 | 3: 1.89 / 1.85 | 0: 1.99 / 1.78 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.44 | 3: 2.00 / 1.85 | 0: 2.09 / 1.78 |
| Coolbet | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.35 | 3: 1.96 / 1.82 | +1: 1.27 / 3.67 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.73 | 3.55 | 2.34 | 3.5: 2.40 / 1.53 | 0: 2.02 / 1.73 |
| Matchbook | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.46 | 2.5: 1.65 / 2.42 | 0: 2.12 / 1.82 |
| Betsson | 2.83 | 3.45 | 2.35 | 2.5: 1.59 / 2.24 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.45 | 2.5: 1.56 / 2.23 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.28 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.53 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 2.85 | 3.50 | 2.38 | 2.5: 1.61 / 2.26 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 3.5: 2.20 / 1.47 | – |
| Tipico | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.55 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.48 | 3.5: 2.35 / 1.56 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 22 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Excelsior host Go Ahead Eagles after a humiliating 0-9 defeat and without suspended striker Nesto Groen, their main shot-on-target source, which leaves an already leaky, low-confidence side further weakened. Go Ahead have been shaky themselves, losing 0-4 at Cambuur, but have a near-full squad and the in-form Tengstedt. The suspension was reported days ago so it is largely priced in; we shade only slightly toward the visitors and towards goals given both defences.
- Excelsior · Striker Nesto Groen is suspended for this match and the next one at Feyenoord. He was sent off after 5 minutes in the 0-9 home loss to Twente and got a three-match ban, one match suspended. (moderate · voetbalrotterdam.nl)
- Excelsior · Mario Domínguez is expected to lead the attack in place of the suspended Groen. Groen averages a team-high 1.6 shots on target per game, so Excelsior lose one of their main attacking threats. (moderate · whoscored.com)
- Excelsior · Excelsior are 15th with 11 points after three straight league defeats without scoring (0-9 Twente, 0-1 Fortuna, 0-4 Heerenveen). They have conceded 28 goals in 11 games, and their defence and morale are fragile. (moderate · bettingodds.com)
- Go Ahead Eagles · Coach Oosting says Go Ahead Eagles have a fit squad apart from the long-term injured Nick Marsman and Pim Saathof. He hinted at possible changes after the 0-4 loss at Cambuur and said some players are 'knocking on the door'. (minor · oost.nl)
- Go Ahead Eagles · Go Ahead Eagles are 10th with 14 points. Oosting admits they have been inconsistent lately, and captain Joris Kramer and Melle Meulensteen are below their usual level after the heavy losses at Zwolle and Cambuur. (minor · oost.nl)
- Go Ahead Eagles · Søren Tengstedt is in strong form with 8 league goals, but his tally is more than double his xG of 3.9. He is the main attacking threat for the visitors. (minor · kowetfans.nl)
- Go Ahead Eagles · Go Ahead fans can travel to Rotterdam, but only under strict conditions. This follows fireworks and disorder after the Cambuur match, which was halted by fans. (minor · kowetfans.nl)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Excelsior
Rotterdam club from the Kralingen district and a long-time Eredivisie side, known for its red-and-black colours, small home ground and a young squad.
- City
- Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Stadion Woudestein
- Founded
- 1902
- Head coach
- Ruben den Uil
Go Ahead Eagles
A historic Deventer club, four-time Dutch champions (1917–1933) and 2025 KNVB Cup winners, who finished 12th in the Eredivisie in 2025–26 and are known for developing young players.
- City
- Deventer, Netherlands
- Stadium
- De Adelaarshorst
- Founded
- 1902
- Head coach
- Joseph Oosting
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Excelsior
- LFC Twente0-9 · 11-01
- L@ Fortuna Sittard0-1 · 10-25
- L@ Heerenveen0-4 · 10-16
- LGroningen1-5 · 10-11
- D@ Ajax2-2 · 09-19
Go Ahead Eagles
- L@ Cambuur0-4 · 10-31
- WTelstar3-2 · 10-23
- L@ PEC Zwolle1-4 · 10-18
- DSparta Rotterdam3-3 · 10-10
- D@ NEC Nijmegen1-1 · 09-20
Excelsior 6 days rest · Go Ahead Eagles 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-03-01Excelsior 0-1 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 2025-10-26Go Ahead Eagles 2-0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 2024-03-30Go Ahead Eagles 3-0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 2023-12-16Excelsior 1-1 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
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