EFL Championship · Matchday 15
Cardiff City vs Burnley prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Cardiff City a 48% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 28% for Burnley; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.39 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Cardiff City / Burnley
- 76%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Burnley
- 52%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 42%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 66%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Cardiff City host Burnley in Championship Round 15 with a mixed recent run: two wins, two draws and a defeat in their last five, the latest a 3-3 draw with West Ham United. They play on three days' rest and have centre-back problems. Burnley arrive under a new manager, with around 14 players reportedly out and no win in five Championship games, though they have four days' rest. Burnley won both recent meetings, 2-1 in March 2025 and 5-0 in August 2024.
The published probabilities make Cardiff slight favourites: home win 46%, draw 25%, away win 30%. Expected goals are 1.79–1.42, and the likeliest scores are 1:1 (11%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:2 (7%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 62% and both teams scoring at 64%. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 22 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:36 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Cardiff City (48%); expected goals Cardiff City 1.94 – 1.45 Burnley.
- Goals look likely: 3.39 expected in total, 66% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
- Last five: Cardiff City DLWDW (2 wins), Burnley DDLLD (0 wins).
- Last 2 meetings in the dataset: Cardiff City 0 wins, 0 draws, Burnley 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Cardiff City
- 1.94
- Expected goals · Burnley
- 1.45
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 38% / 36% / 26%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Cardiff City | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 5.1% | 7.9% | 86.9% |
| Home -2 | 13.1% | 14.8% | 72.1% |
| Home -1≈ | 27.9% | 20.1% | 52.0% |
| Home +1 | 72.2% | 14.8% | 13.0% |
| Home +2 | 87.0% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
| Home +3 | 95.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.4%
- 2:06.3%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:04.1%
- 3:15.9%
- 3:24.3%
- 4:02.0%
- 4:12.9%
- 4:22.1%
- 5:00.8%
- 5:11.1%
- 5:20.8%
- Other home win3.0%
- 0:04.5%
- 1:110.6%
- 2:26.7%
- 3:32.1%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:13.8%
- 0:23.5%
- 1:26.9%
- 0:31.7%
- 1:33.3%
- 2:33.2%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.3% | 65.9% | 44.0% | 25.5% |
| Under | 13.7% | 34.1% | 56.0% | 74.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.5%
- Over, even
- 27.4%
- Under, odd
- 9.2%
- Under, even
- 24.9%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 66.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 33.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Cardiff City
- 23.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Burnley
- 14.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City | 14.4% | 27.9% | 27.0% | 30.7% |
| Burnley | 23.4% | 34.0% | 24.7% | 17.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 30.4% | H/D 5.8% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 14.3% | D/D 12.6% | D/A 9.2% |
| Away | A/H 3.3% | A/D 5.8% | A/A 16.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Cardiff City
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
- 1 N. Trott
- 38 P. Ng
- 2 W. Fish
- 5 K. Bielik
- 3 J. Bagan
- 18 A. Robertson
- 45 Cian Ashford
- 11 O. Tanner
- 10 R. Colwill
- 16 C. Willock
- 8 J. Moylan
Burnley
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: F. Celestini
- 37 G. Coudert
- 2 K. Walker
- 18 H. Ekdal
- 44 Igor
- 23 Lucas Pires
- 29 J. Laurent
- 5 R. Hatate
- 19 L. Ramazani
- 10 M. Edwards
- 34 J. Banel
- 17 A. Hountondji
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Cardiff are favoured at home against a Burnley side in crisis: around 14 players out, a new manager and five Championship games without a win. Cardiff's own problems at centre-back and their short turnaround after the West Ham collapse cap the edge, and both injury lists are already public, so we sit very close to the market with a slight lean to the hosts. A depleted Cardiff defence against a weakened but goal-hungry Burnley keeps the over 2.5 goals probability above 60%.
- Cardiff City · Cardiff are without centre-backs Calum Chambers (knee) and Dylan Lawlor (hamstring), and Gabriel Osho was also unavailable for the West Ham game, leaving them short in defence. (major · sports.yahoo.com)
- Cardiff City · Krystian Bielik may return after missing three games, but Perry Ng is a doubt after coming off. Calum Scanlon has some stiffness, and Alex Robertson will be checked again. (moderate · sports.yahoo.com)
- Cardiff City · Winger Isaak Davies is out for about a month with a hamstring injury. (moderate · whoscored.com)
- Cardiff City · Cardiff are five points above the relegation zone. They are unbeaten in seven at home but threw away a three-goal lead against West Ham on Wednesday. Rest is 3 days. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Burnley · Burnley have 14 players ruled out and 2 doubts, with Fabio Celestini in his first week as manager and seeking his first win after two draws. (major · burnleyexpress.net)
- Burnley · Burnley are missing Amdouni (ankle), Barnes, Beyer (hamstring), Broja, Mejbri, Humphreys and Satpaev. Banel, Cullen, Vardy and Walker are doubts. (major · starting11.com)
- Burnley · Zeki Amdouni could return to the squad, and Bashir Humphreys is expected back in the matchday squad after a knee injury that began in August. Reports on Amdouni conflict, since one source lists him as out. (minor · whoscored.com)
- Burnley · Burnley are winless in five Championship games, sit 22nd in the table and have won just one of eight away games in all competitions. (moderate · livescore.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Cardiff City
Nicknamed the Bluebirds, this Welsh club is the only non-English side to have won the FA Cup, and it returned to the Championship in 2026 after finishing second in League One in 2025–26.
- City
- Cardiff, Wales
- Stadium
- Cardiff City Stadium
- Founded
- 1899
- Head coach
- Brian Barry-Murphy
Burnley
Burnley, nicknamed the Clarets, are a Lancashire club that was relegated from the Premier League in 2025.
- City
- Burnley, England
- Stadium
- Turf Moor
- Founded
- 1882
- Head coach
- Fabio Celestini
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Cardiff City
- DWest Ham United3-3 · 11-04
- L@ Wolves0-3 · 10-31
- WBirmingham City1-0 · 10-24
- D@ Middlesbrough2-2 · 10-17
- WWatford5-1 · 10-13
Burnley
- D@ QPR1-1 · 11-03
- DPortsmouth0-0 · 10-31
- L@ Lincoln City1-4 · 10-24
- LWolves1-2 · 10-16
- DCharlton Athletic2-2 · 10-13
Cardiff City 3 days rest · Burnley 4 days rest
Head to head
- 2025-03-04Cardiff City 1-2 BurnleyEFL Championship
- 2024-08-17Burnley 5-0 Cardiff CityEFL Championship
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