Serie A Β· Matchday 11
Cagliari vs Frosinone prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Cagliari win 31%, draw 26%, Frosinone win 43%; the final score was 1:0.
Full time: Cagliari 1-0 Frosinone. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Frosinone" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Cagliari | 31.2% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:0 | 4.3% | #9 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 9.7% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 36.3% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 18.4% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Cagliari / Frosinone
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Cagliari
- 57%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 20%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 27%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 64%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Cagliari host Frosinone on Serie A Matchday 11, with both sides on six days' rest. The hosts have taken one draw and four defeats from their last five, scoring 4 goals and conceding 13. Riyad Idrissi is the only absentee in the official data, but web reports say the squad is much thinner, with Mina, Obert, Aurelio, Fadera and Nzola all missing. Frosinone have won three of their last five and scored 15 goals, though they reportedly lose top scorer Raimondo for several weeks. Their last two meetings were a 4-3 Cagliari win and a 3-1 Frosinone win.
The published probabilities make Frosinone slight favourites at 39%, with Cagliari at 35% and a draw at 26%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 1:2 (9%) and 2:1 (8%). Expected goals are 1.56β1.66, with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 65%. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 24 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:30 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Frosinone (43%); expected goals Cagliari 1.50 β 1.78 Frosinone.
- Goals look likely: 3.28 expected in total, 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (27%).
- Last five: Cagliari LLLLD (0 wins), Frosinone WWDWL (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Cagliari
- 1.50
- Expected goals Β· Frosinone
- 1.78
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 27% / 38% / 35%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Cagliari | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 94.3% |
| Home -2 | 5.7% | 9.5% | 84.8% |
| Home -1 | 15.2% | 16.0% | 68.8% |
| Home +1β | 56.7% | 19.3% | 23.9% |
| Home +2 | 76.1% | 13.4% | 10.5% |
| Home +3 | 89.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:04.3%
- 2:04.2%
- 2:17.5%
- 3:02.1%
- 3:13.8%
- 3:23.3%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.4%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.5%
- 0:05.1%
- 1:111.4%
- 2:26.7%
- 3:32.0%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:15.4%
- 0:26.0%
- 1:29.0%
- 0:33.6%
- 1:35.3%
- 2:34.0%
- 0:41.6%
- 1:42.4%
- 2:41.8%
- 0:50.6%
- 1:50.8%
- 2:50.6%
- Other away win2.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 85.2% | 63.7% | 41.5% | 23.4% |
| Under | 14.8% | 36.3% | 58.5% | 76.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 37.6%
- Over, even
- 26.1%
- Under, odd
- 9.7%
- Under, even
- 26.7%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 65.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 34.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Cagliari
- 16.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Frosinone
- 22.4%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 22.4% | 33.5% | 25.1% | 19.0% |
| Frosinone | 16.8% | 30.0% | 26.7% | 26.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 18.4% | H/D 6.0% | H/A 3.0% |
| Draw | D/H 10.4% | D/D 13.5% | D/A 13.6% |
| Away | A/H 2.4% | A/D 6.0% | A/A 26.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
(Claude's experimental view; does not change this page) Cagliari arrive on four straight defeats with a decimated squad: Mina, Obert, Aurelio, Fadera and in-form striker Nzola are all missing, forcing youth call-ups. Frosinone are in excellent form but lose top scorer Raimondo for weeks, which tempers the away edge. We lean slightly more towards Frosinone than the market and expect a game with goals given Cagliari's makeshift defence.
- Cagliari Β· Defender Adam Obert is suspended for one match after a red card (second yellow) against Lazio. (moderate Β· dazn.com)
- Cagliari Β· Yerry Mina is out with a biceps femoris muscle tear and is not in the 25-man squad. (major Β· unionesarda.it)
- Cagliari Β· Alieu Fadera (biceps femoris tear) and M'Bala Nzola (thigh flexor strain) were hurt at Roma and miss the match. Nzola had scored in the last two games. (major Β· cagliaricalcio-news.it)
- Cagliari Β· Giuseppe Aurelio is out with a soleus muscle tear. Mattia Felici (ACL, long-term) and Riyad Idrissi (ACL rehab) are also unavailable. (moderate Β· cagliaricalcio-news.it)
- Cagliari Β· Pisacane called up four Under-20 players to fill the squad. Cagliari have lost four straight league games, and the coach has said a win is obligatory. (moderate Β· lanuovasardegna.it)
- Cagliari Β· Winks returns from injury and is expected to start in midfield. Mendy, newly called up by Senegal, is favoured to lead the attack ahead of Kevin Carlos. (minor Β· lanuovasardegna.it)
- Frosinone Β· Top scorer Antonio Raimondo is out with a multi-ligament left ankle injury, expected to keep him out for at least 45 days. Birligea is favoured to replace him, with Bobcek as the alternative. (major Β· frosinonetoday.it)
- Frosinone Β· Midfielder Grillitsch is also unavailable while recovering from surgery. He may return from mid-November. (minor Β· dazn.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Cagliari
Sardinia's only Serie A club and 1969β70 Italian champions, Cagliari finished 14th in 2025β26 under Fabio Pisacane and are generally a survival-focused side.
- City
- Cagliari, Italy
- Stadium
- Unipol Domus
- Founded
- 1920
- Head coach
- Fabio Pisacane
Frosinone
A Lazio-based club that returned to Serie A for 2026β27, Frosinone play a courageous, intense, front-foot style.
- City
- Frosinone, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Benito Stirpe
- Founded
- 1928
- Head coach
- Massimiliano Alvini
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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