Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 34
Vitória vs Fluminense prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Vitória win 29%, draw 30%, Fluminense win 41%; the final score was 0:3.
Full time: Vitória 0-3 Fluminense. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Fluminense" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Fluminense | 41.0% | most likely |
| Correct score | 0:3 | 3.5% | #11 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 20.6% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.7% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 23.9% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Draw / Fluminense
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Miss
- Vitória
- 59%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 0:1
- 25%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 58%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Vitória host Fluminense in Salvador in Round 34 of the Brasileirão. The home side has reportedly just sacked its coach and sits a point above the relegation zone. They are winless in their last four, following a 4-0 win over Chapecoense, and have lost 2-0 at Coritiba most recently. Fluminense beat Internacional 2-1 last time out but lost three of the four games before that. They have had nine days of rest against Vitória's six. The data provider lists nine absentees for Vitória and six for Fluminense, and each side is reportedly missing a suspended centre-back. The last four meetings brought two draws and one win each.
The published probabilities make Fluminense the modest favourites at 41%, with the draw at 30% and a Vitória win at 29%. Expected goals are 1.05–1.30, pointing to a tight game. The most likely scores are 1:1 (14%), 0:1 (11%) and 0:0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 42% and both teams scoring at 48%. These figures blend our model with the consensus of 24 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:24 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Vitória 29%, draw 30%, Fluminense 41% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- A tight game is the base case: 2.35 goals expected, 58% for under 2.5.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (24%).
- Last five: Vitória LDDLW (1 wins), Fluminense WLLLW (2 wins).
- A 30% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Vitória
- 1.05
- Expected goals · Fluminense
- 1.30
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 23% / 46% / 31%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Vitória | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.8% | 2.6% | 96.6% |
| Home -2 | 3.4% | 8.1% | 88.5% |
| Home -1 | 11.5% | 17.6% | 70.9% |
| Home +1≈ | 59.0% | 21.9% | 19.1% |
| Home +2 | 80.9% | 12.4% | 6.8% |
| Home +3 | 93.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:09.0%
- 2:05.3%
- 2:16.9%
- 3:01.9%
- 3:12.4%
- 3:21.6%
- 4:00.5%
- 4:10.6%
- 4:20.4%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.3%
- 0:010.6%
- 1:114.1%
- 2:24.4%
- 3:30.7%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:111.3%
- 0:28.0%
- 1:28.4%
- 0:33.5%
- 1:33.7%
- 2:31.9%
- 0:41.1%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69.1% | 41.7% | 21.1% | 9.0% |
| Under | 30.9% | 58.3% | 78.9% | 91.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 27.1%
- Over, even
- 14.6%
- Under, odd
- 20.3%
- Under, even
- 38.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 48.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 51.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Vitória
- 27.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Fluminense
- 34.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória | 34.9% | 36.7% | 19.3% | 9.0% |
| Fluminense | 27.3% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 16.2% | H/D 5.2% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 11.3% | D/D 19.4% | D/A 15.1% |
| Away | A/H 1.5% | A/D 5.2% | A/A 23.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Fluminense are modest favourites in Salvador against a Vitória side that has just sacked its coach and sits a point above the relegation zone. Both teams are missing a suspended centre-back and several injured regulars, and with Vitória winless in four the market's lean toward a tight, low-scoring away edge looks fair. The coaching change and suspensions are already public, so we stay with the consensus.
- Vitória · Jair Ventura was sacked after the 0-2 loss to Coritiba, and assistant Cléber dos Santos takes over as interim coach for this match. (major · cnnbrasil.com.br)
- Vitória · Defender Brítez is suspended after a third yellow card. Dudu, Nathan Mendes, Ramon and Fabiano are out injured. (moderate · netflu.com.br)
- Vitória · Luan Cândido and Jamerson return from suspension. Mateus Silva and Walace are back from injury, and Baralhas may start for the first time after almost three months out. (moderate · vtvnews.com.br)
- Vitória · Vitória are 15th on 38 points, only one point above the relegation zone, and have not won in four games. The match is treated as decisive for their survival. (moderate · bnews.com.br)
- Fluminense · Defender Ignacio is suspended for yellow-card accumulation. Freytes is expected to replace him alongside Thiago Silva, with Igor Rabello as an alternative. (moderate · vtvnews.com.br)
- Fluminense · Millán, Martinelli and John Kennedy are injured. Alisson is recovering after hip treatment and Matheus Reis is in physical transition. (moderate · vtvnews.com.br)
- Fluminense · Fluminense are 4th on 54 points and chasing a direct Libertadores place. They come off a 2-1 comeback win over Internacional after three straight league defeats, and this is the last game before the international break. (moderate · esbrasil.com.br)
- Fluminense · Lucho Acosta, who scored the winner against Internacional, may start ahead of Ganso in midfield. (minor · spacemoney.com.br)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Vitória
Salvador's Rubro-Negro club from Bahia, strong at home in the Barradão but in the lower part of the 2026 Série A table, fighting to stay clear of relegation.
- City
- Salvador, Brazil
- Stadium
- Estádio Manoel Barradas (Barradão)
- Founded
- 1899
- Head coach
- Cléber dos Santos (interim)
Fluminense
Rio de Janeiro's tricolor club, 2023 Copa Libertadores champions, known for a possession-based, technical identity; Marcão has been in charge since Luis Zubeldía's dismissal in August 2026.
- City
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Stadium
- Maracanã
- Founded
- 1902
- Head coach
- Marcão
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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