Serie A · Matchday 11
Venezia vs Udinese prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Venezia win 40%, draw 30%, Udinese win 30%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: Venezia 2-1 Udinese. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Venezia" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Venezia | 40.3% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 8.8% | #3 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 21.8% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.3% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 14.1% | #4 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Venezia / Udinese
- 70%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Udinese
- 60%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 0:0
- 23%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 49%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 52%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Venezia 40%, draw 30%, Udinese 30% — no clear lean from the model.
- 2.61 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 48%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
- Last five: Venezia LLLWL (1 wins), Udinese LDLLL (0 wins).
- A 30% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Venezia
- 1.41
- Expected goals · Udinese
- 1.20
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 31% / 43% / 25%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Venezia | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.3% | 5.2% | 92.5% |
| Home -2 | 7.5% | 12.5% | 80.1% |
| Home -1≈ | 19.9% | 20.4% | 59.7% |
| Home +1 | 69.8% | 17.0% | 13.2% |
| Home +2 | 86.8% | 8.9% | 4.3% |
| Home +3 | 95.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.7%
- 2:07.3%
- 2:18.8%
- 3:03.5%
- 3:14.1%
- 3:22.5%
- 4:01.2%
- 4:11.5%
- 4:20.9%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.8%
- 0:09.1%
- 1:114.1%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:17.1%
- 0:25.3%
- 1:27.4%
- 0:32.1%
- 1:33.0%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75.1% | 48.3% | 26.5% | 12.4% |
| Under | 24.9% | 51.7% | 73.5% | 87.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 30.5%
- Over, even
- 17.8%
- Under, odd
- 15.9%
- Under, even
- 35.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 54.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Venezia
- 30.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Udinese
- 24.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 24.4% | 34.4% | 24.3% | 16.9% |
| Udinese | 30.3% | 36.2% | 21.6% | 12.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 23.9% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 14.1% | D/D 18.0% | D/A 11.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.2% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 17.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Venezia
Orange-black-and-green club from the Venetian lagoon, promoted back to Serie A as Serie B champions in 2025–26.
- City
- Venice, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
- Founded
- 1907
- Head coach
- Davide Nicola
Udinese
Udinese is a long-established Serie A club from Friuli in north-eastern Italy.
- City
- Udine, Italy
- Stadium
- Bluenergy Stadium
- Founded
- 1896
- Head coach
- Paolo Zanetti
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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