Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 34

Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Cruzeiro
WWWLW
3 - 2
HT 1-1
Bahia
WDLWL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Cruzeiro win 53%, draw 24%, Bahia win 23%; the final score was 3:2.

Full time: Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Cruzeiro" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultCruzeiro53.1%most likely
Correct score3:24.2%#10 of 31
Total goals5 goals12.1%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.564.1%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/H16.1%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Cruzeiro
53%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Bahia
47%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
20%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
43%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
34%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
64%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Cruzeiro (53%); expected goals Cruzeiro 2.02 – 1.29 Bahia.
  • Goals look likely: 3.30 expected in total, 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (34%).
  • Last five: Cruzeiro WWWLW (4 wins), Bahia WDLWL (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Cruzeiro 53%Draw 24%Bahia 23%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Cruzeiro
2.02
Expected goals · Bahia
1.29
Most likely score
1:1 (11%)
Half-time result
41% / 37% / 22%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2CruzeiroDrawBahia
Home -36.4%9.3%84.3%
Home -215.7%16.4%67.9%
Home -1≈32.1%21.0%46.9%
Home +177.0%13.0%10.0%
Home +290.0%6.7%3.3%
Home +396.7%2.4%0.9%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Cruzeiro · Home
  • 1:06.2%
  • 2:07.5%
  • 2:19.6%
  • 3:05.0%
  • 3:16.5%
  • 3:24.2%
  • 4:02.5%
  • 4:13.3%
  • 4:22.1%
  • 5:01.0%
  • 5:11.3%
  • 5:20.8%
  • Other home win3.1%
Draw
  • 0:04.8%
  • 1:110.7%
  • 2:26.2%
  • 3:31.8%
  • Other draw0.3%
Bahia · Away
  • 0:13.6%
  • 0:23.0%
  • 1:26.1%
  • 0:31.3%
  • 1:32.6%
  • 2:32.7%
  • 0:40.4%
  • 1:40.8%
  • 2:40.9%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win1.0%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.8%
1
9.8%
2
21.2%
3
22.1%
4
18.2%
5
12.1%
6
6.6%
7+
5.1%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over85.4%64.1%42.1%23.8%
Under14.6%35.9%57.9%76.2%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
37.8%
Over, even
26.3%
Under, odd
9.8%
Under, even
26.1%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
63.9%
Both teams to score: No
36.1%
Clean-sheet probability · Cruzeiro
27.6%
Clean-sheet probability · Bahia
13.3%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Cruzeiro13.3%26.8%27.1%32.8%
Bahia27.6%35.5%22.9%14.0%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
33.6%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
1.8%
Draw
D/H
16.1%
D/D
12.7%
D/A
8.1%
Away
A/H
3.4%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
13.1%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Cruzeiro

Founded in 1921 as Palestra Italia, Cruzeiro is one of Brazil's most successful clubs, finished 3rd in the 2025 Série A and won the 2026 Campeonato Mineiro.

City
Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Stadium
Mineirão
Founded
1921
Head coach
Artur Jorge

Bahia

Bahia is a two-time Brazilian champion (1959 and 1988) from Salvador and a leading club in the Northeast, and it has been a top-half Série A side in recent seasons.

City
Salvador, Brazil
Stadium
Arena Fonte Nova
Founded
1931
Head coach
Rogério Ceni

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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