Europa League Β· Matchday 4
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sunderland win 52%, draw 25%, Dinamo Zagreb win 23%; the final score was 0:2.
Full time: Sunderland 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Sunderland" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Dinamo Zagreb | 23.2% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:2 | 3.5% | #11 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 24.1% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.0% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 12.8% | #4 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Sunderland
- 52%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Dinamo Zagreb
- 48%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 32%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Sunderland (52%); expected goals Sunderland 1.75 β 1.09 Dinamo Zagreb.
- 2.84 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (32%).
- Last five: Sunderland LDDLW (1 wins), Dinamo Zagreb LWDLD (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet β the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals Β· Sunderland
- 1.75
- Expected goals Β· Dinamo Zagreb
- 1.09
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 39% / 41% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Sunderland | Draw | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.7% | 8.2% | 87.1% |
| Home -2 | 12.9% | 16.1% | 70.9% |
| Home -1β | 29.1% | 23.0% | 47.9% |
| Home +1 | 76.8% | 14.2% | 9.0% |
| Home +2 | 91.0% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
| Home +3 | 97.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.6%
- 2:08.9%
- 2:19.7%
- 3:05.2%
- 3:15.7%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:02.3%
- 4:12.5%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.8%
- 5:10.9%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.6%
- 0:06.4%
- 1:111.7%
- 2:25.3%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:15.8%
- 0:23.5%
- 1:26.1%
- 0:31.3%
- 1:32.2%
- 2:31.9%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.6%
- 2:40.5%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.1% | 54.0% | 31.7% | 15.8% |
| Under | 21.9% | 46.0% | 68.3% | 84.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.2%
- Over, even
- 20.8%
- Under, odd
- 15.5%
- Under, even
- 30.5%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.6%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Sunderland
- 33.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Dinamo Zagreb
- 17.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 17.5% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 25.5% |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 33.5% | 36.6% | 20.0% | 9.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 32.0% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 1.6% |
| Draw | D/H 17.2% | D/D 14.6% | D/A 8.8% |
| Away | A/H 2.9% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 12.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Sunderland
Nicknamed the Black Cats, Sunderland are a historic north-east England club who returned to the Premier League in 2025β26 and finished 7th, earning a place in European competition.
- City
- Sunderland, England
- Stadium
- Stadium of Light
- Founded
- 1879
- Head coach
- RΓ©gis Le Bris
Dinamo Zagreb
Croatia's most decorated club and a perennial domestic champion, Dinamo Zagreb are regular participants in UEFA competitions and are known for developing young talent.
- City
- Zagreb, Croatia
- Stadium
- Stadion Maksimir
- Founded
- 1945
- Head coach
- Jerko Leko
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Europa League β