Europa League Β· Matchday 4
NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): NEC Nijmegen win 47%, draw 26%, Omonia Nicosia win 27%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: NEC Nijmegen 3-1 Omonia Nicosia. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "NEC Nijmegen" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | NEC Nijmegen | 46.9% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 5.1% | #9 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 15.6% | #4 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/H | 2.7% | #8 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- NEC Nijmegen / Omonia Nicosia
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Omonia Nicosia
- 53%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours NEC Nijmegen (47%); expected goals NEC Nijmegen 1.62 β 1.18 Omonia Nicosia.
- 2.80 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (28%).
- Last five: NEC Nijmegen LDWDD (1 wins), Omonia Nicosia LWWWL (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet β the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals Β· NEC Nijmegen
- 1.62
- Expected goals Β· Omonia Nicosia
- 1.18
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 41% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.5% | 6.8% | 89.7% |
| Home -2 | 10.3% | 14.4% | 75.3% |
| Home -1β | 24.7% | 22.2% | 53.1% |
| Home +1 | 72.7% | 16.1% | 11.2% |
| Home +2 | 88.8% | 7.7% | 3.6% |
| Home +3 | 96.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.3%
- 2:08.0%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:04.3%
- 3:15.1%
- 3:23.0%
- 4:01.7%
- 4:12.0%
- 4:21.2%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.7%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.3%
- 0:06.7%
- 1:112.2%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.6%
- 0:24.3%
- 1:26.9%
- 0:31.7%
- 1:32.7%
- 2:32.2%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.8%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.4% | 53.0% | 30.8% | 15.2% |
| Under | 22.6% | 47.0% | 69.2% | 84.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.8%
- Over, even
- 20.2%
- Under, odd
- 15.9%
- Under, even
- 31.1%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· NEC Nijmegen
- 30.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Omonia Nicosia
- 19.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 19.9% | 32.1% | 25.9% | 22.1% |
| Omonia Nicosia | 30.7% | 36.3% | 21.4% | 11.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 28.3% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 15.9% | D/D 15.2% | D/A 10.2% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 15.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
NEC Nijmegen
NEC is an Eredivisie club from Nijmegen that has become a regular European qualifier in recent seasons.
- City
- Nijmegen, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Goffertstadion
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Dick Schreuder
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia are one of Cyprus's biggest clubs, founded in 1948, with 22 Cypriot league titles, a large fan base and regular appearances in European competition.
- City
- Nicosia, Cyprus
- Stadium
- GSP Stadium
- Founded
- 1948
- Head coach
- Henning Berg
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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