Europa League Β· Matchday 4

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Bayer Leverkusen
LLWWW
0 - 1
HT 0-0
Marseille
WWLWL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-05

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Bayer Leverkusen win 67%, draw 20%, Marseille win 13%; the final score was 0:1.

Full time: Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Marseille. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Bayer Leverkusen" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultMarseille13.4%#3 of 3
Correct score0:13.7%#12 of 31
Total goals1 goals13.5%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.541.1%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/A5.3%#5 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Miss
Bayer Leverkusen
67%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
Bayer Leverkusen
43%
Correct scoreMiss
2:0 / 1:0
21%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
45%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
44%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
59%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Bayer Leverkusen (67%); expected goals Bayer Leverkusen 2.18 – 0.88 Marseille.
  • Goals look likely: 3.06 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 2:0 (11%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (44%).
  • Last five: Bayer Leverkusen LLWWW (3 wins), Marseille WWLWL (3 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Bayer Leverkusen 67%Draw 20%Marseille 13%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Bayer Leverkusen
2.18
Expected goals Β· Marseille
0.88
Most likely score
2:0 (11%)
Half-time result
49% / 37% / 14%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Bayer LeverkusenDrawMarseille
Home -310.3%12.8%76.8%
Home -223.2%20.2%56.6%
Home -1β‰ˆ43.4%23.3%33.3%
Home +186.6%9.1%4.3%
Home +295.7%3.3%1.0%
Home +399.0%0.8%0.2%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Bayer Leverkusen Β· Home
  • 1:09.8%
  • 2:011.2%
  • 2:19.8%
  • 3:08.1%
  • 3:17.1%
  • 3:23.1%
  • 4:04.4%
  • 4:13.9%
  • 4:21.7%
  • 5:01.9%
  • 5:11.7%
  • 5:20.7%
  • Other home win3.1%
Draw
  • 0:05.2%
  • 1:19.4%
  • 2:24.3%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.1%
Marseille Β· Away
  • 0:13.7%
  • 0:21.8%
  • 1:23.9%
  • 0:30.5%
  • 1:31.2%
  • 2:31.3%
  • 0:40.1%
  • 1:40.3%
  • 2:40.3%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.0%
  • 2:50.0%
  • Other away win0.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.2%
1
13.5%
2
22.4%
3
22.4%
4
17.1%
5
10.5%
6
5.3%
7+
3.6%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over81.3%58.9%36.5%19.4%
Under18.7%41.1%63.5%80.6%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
35.5%
Over, even
23.4%
Under, odd
13.5%
Under, even
27.6%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
52.2%
Both teams to score: No
47.8%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Bayer Leverkusen
41.6%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Marseille
11.3%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Bayer Leverkusen11.3%24.7%26.9%37.2%
Marseille41.6%36.5%16.0%5.9%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
43.6%
H/D
4.1%
H/A
1.0%
Draw
D/H
19.8%
D/D
11.8%
D/A
5.3%
Away
A/H
3.2%
A/D
4.1%
A/A
7.2%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Bayer Leverkusen

A works club backed by the Bayer company, Leverkusen won the 2023–24 Bundesliga unbeaten, finished 6th in 2025–26 and have played in the Champions League and reached the DFB-Pokal semi-finals.

City
Leverkusen, Germany
Stadium
BayArena
Founded
1904
Head coach
Carles MartΓ­nez Novell

Marseille

Marseille (OM) is a historic Ligue 1 club with a huge fanbase and a Mediterranean identity, and it finished 5th in 2025–26 to qualify for the Europa League.

City
Marseille, France
Stadium
Stade VΓ©lodrome
Founded
1899

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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