Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 34
Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Athletico Paranaense win 38%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama win 34%; the final score was 1:3.
Full time: Athletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco da Gama. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Athletico Paranaense" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Vasco da Gama | 33.6% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:3 | 3.6% | #11 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 15.8% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/A | 2.2% | #9 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Athletico Paranaense / Vasco da Gama
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- Vasco da Gama
- 62%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Athletico Paranaense 38%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 34% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.83 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (23%).
- Last five: Athletico Paranaense LDLWD (1 wins), Vasco da Gama LWLDW (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Athletico Paranaense
- 1.47
- Expected goals · Vasco da Gama
- 1.36
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 31% / 41% / 28%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Athletico Paranaense | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.3% | 5.0% | 92.7% |
| Home -2 | 7.3% | 11.8% | 80.9% |
| Home -1≈ | 19.1% | 19.3% | 61.6% |
| Home +1 | 66.4% | 17.8% | 15.8% |
| Home +2 | 84.2% | 10.2% | 5.7% |
| Home +3 | 94.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.2%
- 2:06.4%
- 2:18.7%
- 3:03.1%
- 3:14.2%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.6%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:07.4%
- 1:113.3%
- 2:25.9%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.6%
- 0:25.5%
- 1:28.0%
- 0:32.5%
- 1:33.6%
- 2:32.7%
- 0:40.8%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.8% | 53.7% | 31.4% | 15.7% |
| Under | 21.2% | 46.3% | 68.6% | 84.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.1%
- Over, even
- 20.6%
- Under, odd
- 13.8%
- Under, even
- 32.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 58.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 41.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Athletico Paranaense
- 25.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Vasco da Gama
- 23.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense | 23.1% | 33.8% | 24.8% | 18.3% |
| Vasco da Gama | 25.6% | 34.9% | 23.8% | 15.7% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.7% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 13.3% | D/D 16.3% | D/A 11.9% |
| Away | A/H 2.4% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 19.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Athletico Paranaense
Curitiba-based club nicknamed Furacão, who play in the Brasileirão Série A and won the 2018 Copa Sudamericana.
- City
- Curitiba, Brazil
- Stadium
- Arena da Baixada (Ligga Arena)
- Founded
- 1924
- Head coach
- Odair Hellmann
Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama is a traditional Rio de Janeiro club, nicknamed the "Gigante da Colina" and a four-time Brazilian league champion. Pedro Emanuel took over as head coach in July 2026 and has focused on a more solid defence.
- City
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Stadium
- Estádio São Januário
- Founded
- 1898
- Head coach
- Pedro Emanuel
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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