Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 34

Chapecoense vs Mirassol prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Chapecoense
LWLLL
1 - 2
HT 1-1
Mirassol
LDWLD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Chapecoense win 25%, draw 26%, Mirassol win 49%; the final score was 1:2.

Full time: Chapecoense 1-2 Mirassol. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Mirassol" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultMirassol48.8%most likely
Correct score1:29.6%#2 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.4%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.557.3%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/A15.8%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Draw / Mirassol
75%
Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Miss
Chapecoense
51%
Correct scoreHit
1:1 / 1:2
22%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
46%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
30%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
57%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Mirassol (49%); expected goals Chapecoense 1.22 – 1.76 Mirassol.
  • 2.99 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (30%).
  • Last five: Chapecoense LWLLL (1 wins), Mirassol LDWLD (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Chapecoense 25%Draw 26%Mirassol 49%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Chapecoense
1.22
Expected goals · Mirassol
1.76
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
23% / 40% / 37%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2ChapecoenseDrawMirassol
Home -30.9%2.6%96.5%
Home -23.5%7.3%89.2%
Home -110.8%14.4%74.8%
Home +1≈51.2%21.3%27.4%
Home +272.6%15.3%12.2%
Home +387.8%7.7%4.5%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Chapecoense · Home
  • 1:04.8%
  • 2:03.8%
  • 2:16.7%
  • 3:01.5%
  • 3:12.7%
  • 3:22.4%
  • 4:00.5%
  • 4:10.8%
  • 4:20.7%
  • 5:00.1%
  • 5:10.2%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.7%
Draw
  • 0:06.4%
  • 1:112.2%
  • 2:25.9%
  • 3:31.4%
  • Other draw0.2%
Mirassol · Away
  • 0:17.6%
  • 0:27.9%
  • 1:29.6%
  • 0:34.6%
  • 1:35.6%
  • 2:33.4%
  • 0:42.0%
  • 1:42.5%
  • 2:41.5%
  • 0:50.7%
  • 1:50.9%
  • 2:50.5%
  • Other away win1.8%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.4%
1
12.4%
2
23.8%
3
22.4%
4
16.7%
5
10.0%
6
5.0%
7+
3.3%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over81.2%57.3%34.9%18.2%
Under18.8%42.7%65.1%81.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
34.8%
Over, even
22.6%
Under, odd
12.4%
Under, even
30.2%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
59.8%
Both teams to score: No
40.2%
Clean-sheet probability · Chapecoense
17.1%
Clean-sheet probability · Mirassol
29.5%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Chapecoense29.5%36.0%22.0%12.5%
Mirassol17.1%30.2%26.7%26.0%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
14.3%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
2.9%
Draw
D/H
9.1%
D/D
14.8%
D/A
15.8%
Away
A/H
1.8%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
30.1%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Chapecoense

Chapecoense is a club from Chapecó in Santa Catarina, known for winning the 2016 Copa Sudamericana after the plane crash that year, and it is playing in the 2026 Brasileirão Série A after promotion from Série B in 2025.

City
Chapecó, Brazil
Stadium
Arena Condá
Founded
1973
Head coach
Rafael Lacerda

Mirassol

A small-city club from the interior of São Paulo state, Mirassol finished fourth in the 2025 Brasileirão in their first top-flight season despite having the league's smallest budget, which earned them their first Copa Libertadores place.

City
Mirassol, Brazil
Stadium
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Founded
1925
Head coach
Rafael Guanaes

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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