Serie A Β· Matchday 10

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Sassuolo
LLLDL
2 - 4
HT 1-1
Fiorentina
DLLLD

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sassuolo win 32%, draw 26%, Fiorentina win 42%; the final score was 2:4.

Full time: Sassuolo 2-4 Fiorentina. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Fiorentina" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultFiorentina42.3%most likely
Correct score2:41.5%#19 of 31
Total goals6 goals5.5%#7 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.559.7%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/A13.7%#4 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Sassuolo / Fiorentina
74%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
Sassuolo
58%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:2
21%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
45%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
26%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
60%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Sassuolo 32%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 42% β€” no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • Goals look likely: 3.09 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (26%).
  • Last five: Sassuolo LLLDL (0 wins), Fiorentina DLLLD (0 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Sassuolo 32%Draw 26%Fiorentina 42%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Sassuolo
1.42
Expected goals Β· Fiorentina
1.67
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
27% / 39% / 34%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2SassuoloDrawFiorentina
Home -31.6%3.8%94.5%
Home -25.5%9.5%85.0%
Home -115.0%16.6%68.4%
Home +1β‰ˆ57.7%19.7%22.5%
Home +277.5%13.1%9.5%
Home +390.5%6.2%3.3%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Sassuolo Β· Home
  • 1:05.2%
  • 2:04.6%
  • 2:17.7%
  • 3:02.2%
  • 3:13.6%
  • 3:23.0%
  • 4:00.8%
  • 4:11.3%
  • 4:21.1%
  • 5:00.2%
  • 5:10.4%
  • 5:20.3%
  • Other home win1.2%
Draw
  • 0:05.7%
  • 1:112.0%
  • 2:26.4%
  • 3:31.7%
  • Other draw0.3%
Fiorentina Β· Away
  • 0:16.4%
  • 0:26.3%
  • 1:29.0%
  • 0:33.5%
  • 1:35.0%
  • 2:33.6%
  • 0:41.5%
  • 1:42.1%
  • 2:41.5%
  • 0:50.5%
  • 1:50.7%
  • 2:50.5%
  • Other away win1.8%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.7%
1
11.6%
2
22.9%
3
22.4%
4
17.3%
5
10.7%
6
5.5%
7+
3.8%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over82.6%59.7%37.4%20.1%
Under17.4%40.3%62.6%79.9%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
35.9%
Over, even
23.9%
Under, odd
11.6%
Under, even
28.6%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
62.8%
Both teams to score: No
37.2%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Sassuolo
18.8%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Fiorentina
24.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Sassuolo24.1%34.3%24.4%17.2%
Fiorentina18.8%31.4%26.2%23.5%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
18.6%
H/D
5.9%
H/A
2.8%
Draw
D/H
10.8%
D/D
14.3%
D/A
13.7%
Away
A/H
2.3%
A/D
5.9%
A/A
25.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Sassuolo

Nicknamed the Neroverdi, Sassuolo are an Emilia-Romagna club who returned to Serie A in 2025, finished 11th in 2025-26, and are now coached by Alberto Aquilani.

City
Sassuolo, Italy
Stadium
Mapei Stadium – CittΓ  del Tricolore
Founded
1920
Head coach
Alberto Aquilani

Fiorentina

Fiorentina, known as La Viola for their purple kits, are a Florence club with two Serie A titles (1955–56 and 1968–69). They had a very poor start to 2025–26 but climbed out of the relegation zone, and Paolo Vanoli returned as head coach in September 2026.

City
Florence, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Founded
1926
Head coach
Paolo Vanoli

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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