Serie A · Matchday 10

Atalanta vs Parma prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Atalanta
DDLWL
0 - 3
HT 0-1
Parma
DLLLW

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Atalanta win 68%, draw 19%, Parma win 13%; the final score was 0:3.

Full time: Atalanta 0-3 Parma. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Atalanta" — missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultParma12.9%#3 of 3
Correct score0:30.5%#23 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.2%most likely
Over/under 2.5Over 2.563.4%most likely
Half-time/full-timeA/A7.0%#4 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Miss
Atalanta
68%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Atalanta
46%
Correct scoreMiss
2:0 / 2:1
20%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
43%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
46%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
63%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Atalanta (68%); expected goals Atalanta 2.34 – 0.93 Parma.
  • Goals look likely: 3.27 expected in total, 63% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 2:0 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (46%).
  • Last five: Atalanta DDLWL (1 wins), Parma DLLLW (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Atalanta 68%Draw 19%Parma 13%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Atalanta
2.34
Expected goals · Parma
0.93
Most likely score
2:0 (10%)
Half-time result
51% / 34% / 14%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2AtalantaDrawParma
Home -312.1%13.6%74.3%
Home -225.7%20.3%54.0%
Home -1≈46.0%22.3%31.6%
Home +187.1%8.6%4.3%
Home +295.7%3.2%1.1%
Home +398.9%0.9%0.2%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Atalanta · Home
  • 1:08.5%
  • 2:010.4%
  • 2:19.7%
  • 3:08.1%
  • 3:17.5%
  • 3:23.5%
  • 4:04.7%
  • 4:14.4%
  • 4:22.0%
  • 5:02.2%
  • 5:12.1%
  • 5:21.0%
  • Other home win4.2%
Draw
  • 0:04.3%
  • 1:18.7%
  • 2:24.5%
  • 3:31.1%
  • Other draw0.2%
Parma · Away
  • 0:13.1%
  • 0:21.6%
  • 1:23.8%
  • 0:30.5%
  • 1:31.2%
  • 2:31.4%
  • 0:40.1%
  • 1:40.3%
  • 2:40.3%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.3%
1
11.5%
2
20.8%
3
22.2%
4
18.1%
5
11.8%
6
6.4%
7+
4.9%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over84.2%63.4%41.2%23.1%
Under15.8%36.6%58.8%76.9%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
37.5%
Over, even
25.9%
Under, odd
11.5%
Under, even
25.1%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
55.1%
Both teams to score: No
44.9%
Clean-sheet probability · Atalanta
39.5%
Clean-sheet probability · Parma
9.7%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Atalanta9.7%22.6%26.4%41.4%
Parma39.5%36.7%17.0%6.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
46.0%
H/D
4.1%
H/A
1.0%
Draw
D/H
19.0%
D/D
10.6%
D/A
4.9%
Away
A/H
3.4%
A/D
4.1%
A/A
7.0%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Atalanta

A Bergamo-based Serie A club and 2023–24 UEFA Europa League winner, Atalanta finished 7th in 2025–26.

City
Bergamo, Italy
Stadium
New Balance Arena
Founded
1907
Head coach
Maurizio Sarri

Parma

Emilia-Romagna club known for its 1990s European success, refounded after the 2015 bankruptcy and back in Serie A since 2024, finishing 13th in 2025–26.

City
Parma, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Founded
1913
Head coach
Alberto Gilardino

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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