Serie A Β· Matchday 10

Lecce vs Genoa prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Lecce
LLWLL
1 - 2
HT 1-2
Genoa
WWLWL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Lecce win 29%, draw 32%, Genoa win 39%; the final score was 1:2.

Full time: Lecce 1-2 Genoa. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Genoa" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultGenoa39.2%most likely
Correct score1:28.4%#4 of 31
Total goals3 goals20.8%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.542.7%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeA/A22.4%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Draw / Genoa
71%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
Lecce
61%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 0:0
26%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
49%
Half-time / full-timeHit
A/A
22%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Under
57%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Lecce 29%, draw 32%, Genoa 39% β€” no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • 2.39 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 43%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (15%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (22%).
  • Last five: Lecce LLWLL (1 wins), Genoa WWLWL (3 wins).
  • A 32% draw probability is on the high side β€” the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Lecce 29%Draw 32%Genoa 39%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Lecce
1.09
Expected goals Β· Genoa
1.30
Most likely score
1:1 (15%)
Half-time result
24% / 47% / 30%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2LecceDrawGenoa
Home -30.9%2.8%96.3%
Home -23.7%8.5%87.8%
Home -112.2%16.8%71.0%
Home +1β‰ˆ60.8%20.5%18.7%
Home +281.3%12.1%6.6%
Home +393.4%4.7%1.9%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Lecce Β· Home
  • 1:07.9%
  • 2:05.4%
  • 2:17.1%
  • 3:02.0%
  • 3:12.6%
  • 3:21.7%
  • 4:00.5%
  • 4:10.7%
  • 4:20.5%
  • 5:00.1%
  • 5:10.2%
  • 5:20.1%
  • Other home win0.3%
Draw
  • 0:011.3%
  • 1:115.1%
  • 2:24.6%
  • 3:30.7%
  • Other draw0.1%
Genoa Β· Away
  • 0:19.8%
  • 0:27.8%
  • 1:28.4%
  • 0:33.4%
  • 1:33.7%
  • 2:32.0%
  • 0:41.1%
  • 1:41.2%
  • 2:40.6%
  • 0:50.3%
  • 1:50.3%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.5%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
11.3%
1
17.7%
2
28.3%
3
20.8%
4
12.4%
5
5.9%
6
2.4%
7+
1.1%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over71.0%42.7%21.9%9.4%
Under29.0%57.3%78.1%90.6%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
27.6%
Over, even
15.1%
Under, odd
17.7%
Under, even
39.6%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
50.4%
Both teams to score: No
49.6%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Lecce
27.3%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Genoa
33.7%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Lecce33.7%36.7%19.9%9.7%
Genoa27.3%35.4%23.0%14.3%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
16.0%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
2.0%
Draw
D/H
11.4%
D/D
20.5%
D/A
14.8%
Away
A/H
1.6%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
22.4%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Lecce

Lecce is a club from Apulia in southern Italy, nicknamed the Giallorossi, and it usually plays in the lower half of Serie A; it finished 17th in 2025–26, which kept it in the top flight for a fourth straight season.

City
Lecce, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Via del Mare
Founded
1908
Head coach
Eusebio Di Francesco

Genoa

Italy's oldest existing football club, nicknamed Il Grifone, nine-time Italian champion (last in 1923–24) and a long-standing Serie A side that shares the Luigi Ferraris stadium with Sampdoria.

City
Genoa, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Founded
1893
Head coach
Daniele De Rossi

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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