La Liga · Matchday 11
Getafe vs Sevilla prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Getafe win 28%, draw 32%, Sevilla win 41%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: Getafe 3-1 Sevilla. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Sevilla" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Getafe | 27.7% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 2.0% | #12 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 10.6% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.0% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | A/H | 1.3% | #9 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Draw / Sevilla
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Getafe
- 59%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 0:0
- 27%
- Total goalsMiss
- 1 / 2 goals
- 50%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 63%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Sevilla (41%); expected goals Getafe 0.96 – 1.21 Sevilla.
- A tight game is the base case: 2.17 goals expected, 63% for under 2.5.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (15%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (23%).
- Last five: Getafe LDLWL (1 wins), Sevilla WLDLW (2 wins).
- A 32% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Getafe
- 0.96
- Expected goals · Sevilla
- 1.21
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (15%)
- Half-time result
- 22% / 48% / 30%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Getafe | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 97.2% |
| Home -2 | 2.8% | 7.6% | 89.6% |
| Home -1 | 10.4% | 17.3% | 72.3% |
| Home +1≈ | 59.3% | 22.3% | 18.4% |
| Home +2 | 81.6% | 12.2% | 6.2% |
| Home +3 | 93.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:09.6%
- 2:05.2%
- 2:16.3%
- 3:01.7%
- 3:12.0%
- 3:21.2%
- 4:00.4%
- 4:10.5%
- 4:20.3%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.2%
- 0:012.7%
- 1:114.6%
- 2:23.9%
- 3:30.5%
- Other draw0.0%
- 0:112.5%
- 0:28.4%
- 1:28.0%
- 0:33.4%
- 1:33.3%
- 2:31.6%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.0%
- 2:40.5%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65.2% | 37.0% | 17.5% | 6.9% |
| Under | 34.8% | 63.0% | 82.5% | 93.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 24.6%
- Over, even
- 12.4%
- Under, odd
- 22.1%
- Under, even
- 40.9%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 44.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 55.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Getafe
- 29.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Sevilla
- 38.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 38.4% | 36.8% | 17.6% | 7.3% |
| Sevilla | 29.7% | 36.1% | 21.9% | 12.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 15.2% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 11.1% | D/D 21.5% | D/A 15.5% |
| Away | A/H 1.3% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 23.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Getafe
A club from the Madrid suburb of Getafe, known as the Azulones, who have been a regular La Liga side since 2017 and play a disciplined, physical, defensively organised style under José Bordalás.
- City
- Getafe (Community of Madrid), Spain
- Stadium
- Coliseum (Estadio Coliseum)
- Founded
- 1983
- Head coach
- José Bordalás
Sevilla
Andalusian club from Seville and a record seven-time UEFA Europa League/UEFA Cup winner, who finished 13th in La Liga in 2025–26.
- City
- Seville, Spain
- Stadium
- Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
- Founded
- 1890
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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