Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Arouca vs Nacional prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Arouca
WWDLD
1 - 0
HT 0-0
Nacional
WLLLL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Arouca win 58%, draw 24%, Nacional win 18%; the final score was 1:0.

Full time: Arouca 1-0 Nacional. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Arouca" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultArouca57.8%most likely
Correct score1:011.1%#2 of 31
Total goals1 goals16.4%#3 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.548.5%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/H19.4%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Arouca
58%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Nacional
42%
Correct scoreHit
1:1 / 1:0
23%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
35%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
51%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Arouca (58%); expected goals Arouca 1.82 – 0.92 Nacional.
  • 2.73 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 51%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (35%).
  • Last five: Arouca WWDLD (2 wins), Nacional WLLLL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Arouca 58%Draw 24%Nacional 18%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Arouca
1.82
Expected goals · Nacional
0.92
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
41% / 42% / 17%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2AroucaDrawNacional
Home -36.0%9.7%84.3%
Home -215.7%18.0%66.3%
Home -1≈33.7%24.1%42.2%
Home +182.0%11.8%6.2%
Home +293.8%4.6%1.6%
Home +398.4%1.3%0.3%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Arouca · Home
  • 1:011.1%
  • 2:010.7%
  • 2:19.8%
  • 3:06.5%
  • 3:16.0%
  • 3:22.7%
  • 4:02.9%
  • 4:12.7%
  • 4:21.2%
  • 5:01.1%
  • 5:11.0%
  • 5:20.5%
  • Other home win1.6%
Draw
  • 0:07.2%
  • 1:111.5%
  • 2:24.5%
  • 3:30.8%
  • Other draw0.1%
Nacional · Away
  • 0:15.3%
  • 0:22.7%
  • 1:25.0%
  • 0:30.8%
  • 1:31.5%
  • 2:31.4%
  • 0:40.2%
  • 1:40.4%
  • 2:40.3%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.2%
1
16.4%
2
25.0%
3
22.1%
4
15.1%
5
8.3%
6
3.8%
7+
2.2%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over76.4%51.5%29.3%14.2%
Under23.6%48.5%70.7%85.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
32.0%
Over, even
19.4%
Under, odd
16.4%
Under, even
32.2%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
51.0%
Both teams to score: No
49.0%
Clean-sheet probability · Arouca
39.9%
Clean-sheet probability · Nacional
16.3%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Arouca16.3%29.5%26.8%27.4%
Nacional39.9%36.7%16.8%6.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
35.5%
H/D
4.6%
H/A
1.2%
Draw
D/H
19.4%
D/D
14.9%
D/A
7.3%
Away
A/H
2.9%
A/D
4.6%
A/A
9.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Arouca

A small-town club from northern Portugal's Porto district, in the Primeira Liga since 2021 and usually a mid-to-lower-table side.

City
Arouca, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Founded
1951
Head coach
Vítor Severino

Nacional

Funchal-based club from Madeira that usually plays in Portugal's top flight, finishing 14th in the 2025–26 Primeira Liga with 34 points.

City
Funchal, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio da Madeira
Founded
1910
Head coach
João Henriques

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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