Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Académico Viseu vs Rio Ave prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Académico Viseu
WWWWW
2 - 1
HT 0-1
Rio Ave
LWLDL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Académico Viseu win 50%, draw 26%, Rio Ave win 23%; the final score was 2:1.

Full time: Académico Viseu 2-1 Rio Ave. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Académico Viseu" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultAcadémico Viseu50.3%most likely
Correct score2:19.6%#3 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.0%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.550.1%most likely
Half-time/full-timeA/H2.7%#8 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Académico Viseu
50%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Rio Ave
50%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:0
23%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
30%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
50%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Académico Viseu (50%); expected goals Académico Viseu 1.63 – 1.05 Rio Ave.
  • 2.68 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 50%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
  • Last five: Académico Viseu WWWWW (5 wins), Rio Ave LWLDL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Académico Viseu 50%Draw 26%Rio Ave 23%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Académico Viseu
1.63
Expected goals · Rio Ave
1.05
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
37% / 43% / 20%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Académico ViseuDrawRio Ave
Home -34.0%7.5%88.5%
Home -211.5%15.6%72.8%
Home -1≈27.2%23.1%49.7%
Home +176.6%14.5%8.9%
Home +291.1%6.4%2.6%
Home +397.4%2.0%0.6%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Académico Viseu · Home
  • 1:010.4%
  • 2:09.2%
  • 2:19.6%
  • 3:05.0%
  • 3:15.2%
  • 3:22.7%
  • 4:02.0%
  • 4:12.1%
  • 4:21.1%
  • 5:00.7%
  • 5:10.7%
  • 5:20.4%
  • Other home win1.2%
Draw
  • 0:07.7%
  • 1:112.5%
  • 2:25.0%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.1%
Rio Ave · Away
  • 0:16.3%
  • 0:23.7%
  • 1:26.1%
  • 0:31.3%
  • 1:32.1%
  • 2:31.7%
  • 0:40.3%
  • 1:40.6%
  • 2:40.5%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.7%
1
16.7%
2
25.4%
3
22.0%
4
14.7%
5
7.9%
6
3.5%
7+
2.0%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over75.6%50.1%28.1%13.4%
Under24.4%49.9%71.9%86.6%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
31.4%
Over, even
18.7%
Under, odd
16.7%
Under, even
33.1%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
53.0%
Both teams to score: No
47.0%
Clean-sheet probability · Académico Viseu
35.2%
Clean-sheet probability · Rio Ave
19.5%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Académico Viseu19.5%31.9%26.1%22.6%
Rio Ave35.2%36.8%19.2%8.9%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
30.0%
H/D
5.1%
H/A
1.5%
Draw
D/H
17.6%
D/D
16.1%
D/A
9.3%
Away
A/H
2.7%
A/D
5.1%
A/A
12.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Académico Viseu

Nicknamed Os Viriatos, this Viseu club came up to the Primeira Liga after the 2025–26 season.

City
Viseu, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio Municipal do Fontelo
Founded
1914
Head coach
Bruno Pinheiro

Rio Ave

A Vila do Conde club that plays in the Primeira Liga and usually competes in the lower and middle part of the table. It appointed Vasco Seabra as head coach in October 2026 after Sotiris Sylaidopoulos left.

City
Vila do Conde, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio dos Arcos
Founded
1939
Head coach
Vasco Seabra

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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