Serie A · Matchday 10
Udinese vs Roma prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Udinese win 17%, draw 21%, Roma win 62%; the final score was 2:5.
Full time: Udinese 2-5 Roma. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Roma" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Roma | 62.1% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:5 | 0.8% | #22 of 31 |
| Total goals | 7+ goals | 4.1% | #8 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 39.7% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Roma
- 62%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Roma
- 39%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:2 / 1:1
- 20%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 40%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 61%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Roma (62%); expected goals Udinese 1.02 – 2.12 Roma.
- Goals look likely: 3.14 expected in total, 61% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:2 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (40%).
- Last five: Udinese DLLLL (0 wins), Roma WDWDD (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Udinese
- 1.02
- Expected goals · Roma
- 2.12
- Most likely score
- 1:2 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 17% / 37% / 46%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Udinese | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 98.4% |
| Home -2 | 1.6% | 4.4% | 94.0% |
| Home -1 | 6.0% | 10.7% | 83.3% |
| Home +1≈ | 37.9% | 22.9% | 39.2% |
| Home +2 | 60.8% | 18.9% | 20.3% |
| Home +3 | 79.7% | 11.5% | 8.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.9%
- 2:02.2%
- 2:14.8%
- 3:00.8%
- 3:11.6%
- 3:21.7%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.4%
- 4:20.4%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:04.9%
- 1:19.9%
- 2:25.1%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.7%
- 0:29.7%
- 1:29.9%
- 0:36.9%
- 1:37.0%
- 2:33.6%
- 0:43.7%
- 1:43.7%
- 2:41.9%
- 0:51.5%
- 1:51.6%
- 2:50.8%
- Other away win3.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.6% | 60.7% | 38.4% | 20.9% |
| Under | 17.4% | 39.3% | 61.6% | 79.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.3%
- Over, even
- 24.4%
- Under, odd
- 12.5%
- Under, even
- 26.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Udinese
- 12.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Roma
- 36.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 36.1% | 36.8% | 18.7% | 8.4% |
| Roma | 12.0% | 25.4% | 27.0% | 35.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 9.0% | H/D 4.6% | H/A 3.4% |
| Draw | D/H 6.4% | D/D 12.1% | D/A 19.0% |
| Away | A/H 1.3% | A/D 4.6% | A/A 39.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Udinese
Udinese is a long-established Serie A club from Friuli in north-eastern Italy.
- City
- Udine, Italy
- Stadium
- Bluenergy Stadium
- Founded
- 1896
- Head coach
- Paolo Zanetti
Roma
Roma is a historic Rome-based club that shares the Stadio Olimpico with Lazio, and it finished 3rd in Serie A in 2025–26 under Gian Piero Gasperini.
- City
- Rome, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Olimpico
- Founded
- 1927
- Head coach
- Gian Piero Gasperini
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide → · League page: Serie A →