Ligue 1 · Matchday 9

Troyes vs Le Mans prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Troyes
DLLLL
2 - 0
HT 1-0
Le Mans
DLLWD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Troyes win 42%, draw 28%, Le Mans win 30%; the final score was 2:0.

Full time: Troyes 2-0 Le Mans. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Troyes" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultTroyes41.8%most likely
Correct score2:07.4%#5 of 31
Total goals2 goals25.9%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.550.3%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H24.0%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Troyes / Le Mans
72%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Le Mans
58%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:0
22%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
24%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Under
50%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Troyes 42%, draw 28%, Le Mans 30% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • 2.66 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 50%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
  • Last five: Troyes DLLLL (0 wins), Le Mans DLLWD (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Troyes 42%Draw 28%Le Mans 30%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Troyes
1.46
Expected goals · Le Mans
1.20
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
31% / 44% / 24%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2TroyesDrawLe Mans
Home -32.5%5.5%92.0%
Home -28.0%12.9%79.1%
Home -1≈20.9%21.0%58.2%
Home +170.0%17.1%12.9%
Home +287.1%8.7%4.2%
Home +395.8%3.1%1.1%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Troyes · Home
  • 1:09.0%
  • 2:07.4%
  • 2:18.9%
  • 3:03.6%
  • 3:14.4%
  • 3:22.6%
  • 4:01.3%
  • 4:11.6%
  • 4:21.0%
  • 5:00.4%
  • 5:10.5%
  • 5:20.3%
  • Other home win0.9%
Draw
  • 0:08.2%
  • 1:113.5%
  • 2:25.4%
  • 3:31.1%
  • Other draw0.1%
Le Mans · Away
  • 0:17.2%
  • 0:25.0%
  • 1:27.4%
  • 0:32.0%
  • 1:33.0%
  • 2:32.2%
  • 0:40.6%
  • 1:40.9%
  • 2:40.6%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.6%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
8.2%
1
16.2%
2
25.9%
3
22.0%
4
14.6%
5
7.8%
6
3.5%
7+
1.9%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over75.7%49.7%27.8%13.2%
Under24.3%50.3%72.2%86.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
31.2%
Over, even
18.5%
Under, odd
16.2%
Under, even
34.1%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
54.9%
Both teams to score: No
45.1%
Clean-sheet probability · Troyes
30.0%
Clean-sheet probability · Le Mans
23.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Troyes23.2%33.9%24.7%18.1%
Le Mans30.0%36.1%21.7%12.1%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
24.0%
H/D
5.5%
H/A
1.9%
Draw
D/H
15.3%
D/D
17.1%
D/A
11.6%
Away
A/H
2.4%
A/D
5.5%
A/A
16.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Troyes

A City Football Group-owned club from Champagne, Troyes won the 2025-26 Ligue 2 title under Stéphane Dumont and are back in Ligue 1 for 2026-27.

City
Troyes, France
Stadium
Stade de l'Aube
Founded
1986
Head coach
Stéphane Dumont

Le Mans

A Sarthe club nicknamed Les Sang et Or, formed in 1985 by a merger, which rose from the National division to Ligue 2 in 2025 and is playing in Ligue 1 in 2026–27.

City
Le Mans, France
Stadium
Stade Marie-Marvingt (MMArena)
Founded
1985
Head coach
Patrick Videira

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

Market & China Sports Lottery guide → · League page: Ligue 1 →