Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

FC Porto vs Estoril prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

FC Porto
WWWWW
4 - 0
HT 1-0
Estoril
LLLLD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): FC Porto win 83%, draw 12%, Estoril win 6%; the final score was 4:0.

Full time: FC Porto 4-0 Estoril. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "FC Porto" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultFC Porto82.6%most likely
Correct score4:08.5%#4 of 31
Total goals4 goals18.6%#3 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.566.2%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H58.2%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
FC Porto
83%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -2Hit
FC Porto
41%
Correct scoreMiss
2:0 / 3:0
25%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
41%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
58%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
66%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour FC Porto (83%); expected goals FC Porto 2.80 – 0.61 Estoril.
  • Goals look likely: 3.41 expected in total, 66% for over 2.5 and 43% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 2:0 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (58%).
  • Last five: FC Porto WWWWW (5 wins), Estoril LLLLD (0 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

FC Porto 83%Draw 12%Estoril 6%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · FC Porto
2.80
Expected goals · Estoril
0.61
Most likely score
2:0 (13%)
Half-time result
61% / 31% / 8%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2FC PortoDrawEstoril
Home -322.6%18.3%59.2%
Home -2≈40.8%22.1%37.1%
Home -162.9%19.7%17.4%
Home +194.5%4.3%1.3%
Home +298.7%1.0%0.2%
Home +399.8%0.2%0.0%

Model's balanced line: Home -2

Correct score

FC Porto · Home
  • 1:09.3%
  • 2:013.0%
  • 2:17.9%
  • 3:012.1%
  • 3:17.4%
  • 3:22.2%
  • 4:08.5%
  • 4:15.2%
  • 4:21.6%
  • 5:04.8%
  • 5:12.9%
  • 5:20.9%
  • Other home win7.0%
Draw
  • 0:03.3%
  • 1:15.6%
  • 2:22.4%
  • 3:30.5%
  • Other draw0.1%
Estoril · Away
  • 0:12.0%
  • 0:20.6%
  • 1:21.7%
  • 0:30.1%
  • 1:30.3%
  • 2:30.5%
  • 0:40.0%
  • 1:40.1%
  • 2:40.1%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.0%
  • 2:50.0%
  • Other away win0.1%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
3.3%
1
11.3%
2
19.2%
3
21.8%
4
18.6%
5
12.7%
6
7.2%
7+
5.8%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over85.4%66.2%44.3%25.7%
Under14.6%33.8%55.7%74.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
38.7%
Over, even
27.5%
Under, odd
11.3%
Under, even
22.5%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
42.7%
Both teams to score: No
57.3%
Clean-sheet probability · FC Porto
54.5%
Clean-sheet probability · Estoril
6.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
FC Porto6.1%17.0%23.8%53.1%
Estoril54.5%33.1%10.0%2.4%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
58.2%
H/D
2.3%
H/A
0.4%
Draw
D/H
21.5%
D/D
7.3%
D/A
2.4%
Away
A/H
2.9%
A/D
2.3%
A/A
2.8%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

FC Porto

One of Portugal's 'Big Three' clubs, Porto won the 2025–26 Primeira Liga title.

City
Porto, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio do Dragão
Founded
1893
Head coach
Francesco Farioli

Estoril

Estoril, nicknamed the Canaries, are a Lisbon-area club that returned to the Primeira Liga in 2021, finished 10th in 2025–26 and have been in the top flight since.

City
Estoril (Cascais), Portugal
Stadium
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Founded
1939

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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