Primeira Liga · Matchday 10
Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Moreirense win 34%, draw 29%, Estrela Amadora win 38%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: Moreirense 2-1 Estrela Amadora. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Estrela Amadora" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Moreirense | 33.7% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 7.8% | #6 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 21.6% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.1% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 12.9% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Moreirense / Estrela Amadora
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Moreirense
- 62%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 0:1
- 23%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 21%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Moreirense 34%, draw 29%, Estrela Amadora 38% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.56 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 47%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (21%).
- Last five: Moreirense WLDWL (2 wins), Estrela Amadora LLLDW (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Moreirense
- 1.23
- Expected goals · Estrela Amadora
- 1.32
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 26% / 45% / 29%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 95.1% |
| Home -2 | 4.9% | 9.9% | 85.2% |
| Home -1 | 14.8% | 18.9% | 66.3% |
| Home +1≈ | 62.2% | 20.3% | 17.5% |
| Home +2 | 82.5% | 11.3% | 6.2% |
| Home +3 | 93.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:08.6%
- 2:05.9%
- 2:17.8%
- 3:02.4%
- 3:13.2%
- 3:22.1%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.0%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:08.7%
- 1:113.6%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:19.3%
- 0:26.8%
- 1:28.4%
- 0:33.0%
- 1:33.7%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73.4% | 47.1% | 25.5% | 11.6% |
| Under | 26.6% | 52.9% | 74.5% | 88.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 29.9%
- Over, even
- 17.2%
- Under, odd
- 17.9%
- Under, even
- 35.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 53.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 47.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Moreirense
- 26.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Estrela Amadora
- 29.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 29.1% | 35.9% | 22.2% | 12.8% |
| Estrela Amadora | 26.7% | 35.2% | 23.3% | 14.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 18.8% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 12.9% | D/D 17.7% | D/A 14.2% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 21.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Moreirense
A small-town club from Moreira de Cónegos that won the 2016–17 Taça da Liga and finished 7th in the 2025–26 Primeira Liga.
- City
- Moreira de Cónegos (Guimarães), Portugal
- Stadium
- Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
- Founded
- 1938
- Head coach
- Vasco Botelho da Costa
Estrela Amadora
A tricolour club from Amadora in the Lisbon area, refounded in 2020 as the heir to the original 1932 club, which plays in the Primeira Liga at the Estádio José Gomes.
- City
- Amadora, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio José Gomes
- Founded
- 1932
- Head coach
- Pepa
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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