K League 1 Β· Matchday 34

Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Gwangju FC
WLWDD
1 - 1
HT 0-0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
LDLWD

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Gwangju FC win 28%, draw 29%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win 42%; the final score was 1:1.

Full time: Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Gimcheon Sangmu FC" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultDraw29.0%#2 of 3
Correct score1:113.9%most likely
Total goals2 goals26.6%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.552.0%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/D18.1%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Draw / Gimcheon Sangmu FC
72%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
Gwangju FC
58%
Correct scoreHit
1:1 / 0:1
23%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
24%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Under
52%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC (42%); expected goals Gwangju FC 1.15 – 1.45 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
  • 2.59 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 48%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (24%).
  • Last five: Gwangju FC WLWDD (2 wins), Gimcheon Sangmu FC LDLWD (1 wins).
  • A 29% draw probability is on the high side β€” the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Gwangju FC 28%Draw 29%Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Gwangju FC
1.15
Expected goals Β· Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.45
Most likely score
1:1 (14%)
Half-time result
23% / 46% / 31%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Gwangju FCDrawGimcheon Sangmu FC
Home -30.9%2.8%96.3%
Home -23.7%8.3%88.0%
Home -112.0%16.5%71.5%
Home +1β‰ˆ57.5%21.1%21.3%
Home +278.7%13.1%8.2%
Home +391.8%5.6%2.6%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Gwangju FC Β· Home
  • 1:07.1%
  • 2:04.9%
  • 2:17.1%
  • 3:01.9%
  • 3:12.7%
  • 3:22.0%
  • 4:00.5%
  • 4:10.8%
  • 4:20.6%
  • 5:00.1%
  • 5:10.2%
  • 5:20.1%
  • Other home win0.5%
Draw
  • 0:09.0%
  • 1:113.9%
  • 2:25.1%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.1%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Β· Away
  • 0:19.3%
  • 0:27.8%
  • 1:29.0%
  • 0:33.8%
  • 1:34.3%
  • 2:32.5%
  • 0:41.4%
  • 1:41.6%
  • 2:40.9%
  • 0:50.4%
  • 1:50.5%
  • 2:50.3%
  • Other away win0.8%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
9.0%
1
16.4%
2
26.6%
3
21.7%
4
14.1%
5
7.3%
6
3.2%
7+
1.7%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over74.6%48.0%26.3%12.2%
Under25.4%52.0%73.7%87.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
30.3%
Over, even
17.7%
Under, odd
16.4%
Under, even
35.6%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
53.7%
Both teams to score: No
46.3%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Gwangju FC
23.5%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Gimcheon Sangmu FC
31.7%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Gwangju FC31.7%36.4%20.9%10.9%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC23.5%34.0%24.6%17.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
15.1%
H/D
5.5%
H/A
2.5%
Draw
D/H
11.6%
D/D
18.1%
D/A
16.3%
Away
A/H
1.8%
A/D
5.5%
A/A
23.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Gwangju FC

Citizen club from Gwangju, founded in 2010, that won K League 2 in 2022, finished third in K League 1 in 2023 and reached the AFC Champions League Elite for the first time.

City
Gwangju, South Korea
Stadium
Gwangju Football Stadium
Founded
2010
Head coach
Lee Jung-kyu

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

The military-affiliated club of the Korea Armed Forces Athletic Corps, staffed by K League players during their national service. It won the 2023 K League 2 title and finished third in K League 1 in 2024.

City
Gimcheon, South Korea
Stadium
Gimcheon Stadium
Founded
1984
Head coach
Joo Seung-jin

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

Market & China Sports Lottery guide β†’ Β· League page: K League 1 β†’