Ligue 1 · Matchday 9
Nice vs Rennes prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Nice win 36%, draw 26%, Rennes win 37%; the final score was 5:2.
Full time: Nice 5-2 Rennes. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Rennes" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Nice | 36.3% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 5:2 | 0.4% | #28 of 31 |
| Total goals | 7+ goals | 3.6% | #8 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 20.8% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Nice / Rennes
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Nice
- 63%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 21%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 59%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Nice 36%, draw 26%, Rennes 37% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.05 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (21%).
- Last five: Nice WLWWL (3 wins), Rennes WLWLW (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Nice
- 1.51
- Expected goals · Rennes
- 1.53
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 29% / 41% / 30%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Nice | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.2% | 4.7% | 93.0% |
| Home -2 | 7.0% | 11.1% | 82.0% |
| Home -1 | 18.0% | 18.3% | 63.7% |
| Home +1≈ | 62.7% | 18.6% | 18.7% |
| Home +2 | 81.3% | 11.4% | 7.3% |
| Home +3 | 92.7% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.0%
- 2:05.4%
- 2:18.3%
- 3:02.7%
- 3:14.2%
- 3:23.2%
- 4:01.0%
- 4:11.6%
- 4:21.2%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.3%
- 0:05.9%
- 1:112.2%
- 2:26.4%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:16.1%
- 0:25.6%
- 1:28.5%
- 0:32.9%
- 1:34.3%
- 2:33.3%
- 0:41.1%
- 1:41.7%
- 2:41.3%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 81.9% | 58.7% | 36.3% | 19.3% |
| Under | 18.1% | 41.3% | 63.7% | 80.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.4%
- Over, even
- 23.3%
- Under, odd
- 12.2%
- Under, even
- 29.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 37.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Nice
- 21.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Rennes
- 22.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 22.1% | 33.3% | 25.2% | 19.4% |
| Rennes | 21.6% | 33.1% | 25.4% | 20.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 20.8% | H/D 5.8% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 12.9% | D/D 14.7% | D/A 13.2% |
| Away | A/H 2.6% | A/D 5.8% | A/A 21.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Nice
Côte d'Azur club nicknamed Les Aiglons, a regular Ligue 1 side that finished 4th in 2024–25 and played in the UEFA Europa League.
- City
- Nice, France
- Stadium
- Allianz Riviera
- Founded
- 1904
Rennes
Brittany's leading club, based in Rennes and known as Les Rouge et Noirs, a long-time Ligue 1 side that finished 6th in 2025–26 and has produced many talents through its youth academy.
- City
- Rennes, France
- Stadium
- Roazhon Park
- Founded
- 1901
- Head coach
- Franck Haise
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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